中國(guo)上(shang)半(ban)年農(nong)業生產資料(liao)(liao)價格(ge)同比上(shang)漲26.2%，原材料(liao)(liao)、能源價格(ge)的持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)快速(su)上(shang)漲，成為推(tui)動農(nong)資價格(ge)不(bu)斷上(shang)揚的主導力，農(nong)資價格(ge)將繼續(xu)(xu)呈(cheng)現持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)走高的態勢。
據中國(guo)(guo)信息報8月21日報道(dao)，據國(guo)(guo)家統計局對全國(guo)(guo)3.1萬個(ge)農業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)經(jing)營單位和(he)農戶(hu)的調查，2008年(nian)上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)全國(guo)(guo)農業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)資料價格(ge)同比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)26.2%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)比(bi)2007年(nian)同期高20個(ge)百(bai)分點。一般(ban)而言，價格(ge)總是(shi)圍繞價值(zhi)上(shang)下波動(dong)，價格(ge)是(shi)價值(zhi)的客觀反映。過高或(huo)過低(di)的價格(ge)變化幅(fu)度皆是(shi)短時期內(nei)的特(te)定經(jing)濟社會(hui)環境的產(chan)(chan)物。但是(shi)僅僅短短一年(nian)的時間，農資價格(ge)漲(zhang)幅(fu)居然(ran)躍升(sheng)20個(ge)百(bai)分點，且從2007年(nian)第(di)三季度開始至今，分季度農資價格(ge)增(zeng)長始終在兩位數以上(shang)，必然(ran)引起(qi)更多關注和(he)深思。
2008年(nian)(nian)以來，農(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲呈現明(ming)顯的結構性(xing)特點(dian)(dian)，化肥、農(nong)藥、農(nong)用薄膜和(he)柴油等(deng)工業產(chan)品類農(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)比2007年(nian)(nian)同期上(shang)漲44.96%，帶(dai)動(dong)農(nong)資(zi)(zi)購(gou)買(mai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲17.19個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；種子、仔豬和(he)飼料等(deng)來自農(nong)業內部的農(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)大幅度上(shang)漲14.51%，帶(dai)動(dong)農(nong)資(zi)(zi)購(gou)買(mai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲8.35個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。據有關方面調查，安徽、山西兩省(sheng)僅化肥支出每畝增(zeng)加50元(yuan)左右。福(fu)建省(sheng)的調查結果顯示，每畝早稻成本增(zeng)長近100元(yuan)。生豬飼養物質費(fei)用每頭增(zeng)加69%。
據國(guo)家(jia)統(tong)計局(ju)對全國(guo)31個省(sheng)（區(qu)、市）6.8萬(wan)戶農(nong)村(cun)住戶的(de)(de)抽樣調查結果(guo)顯示，上(shang)半(ban)年農(nong)民(min)人均(jun)(jun)現(xian)金收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)2,528元，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長19.8%，扣除價(jia)(jia)格(ge)因素，實際增(zeng)(zeng)長10.3%。其(qi)中，農(nong)民(min)出(chu)售農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)(000061,股吧(ba))的(de)(de)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)人均(jun)(jun)1,080元，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長22.1%。農(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)漲(zhang)幅明顯高(gao)于農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)增(zeng)(zeng)幅、高(gao)于農(nong)民(min)人均(jun)(jun)現(xian)金收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)幅，甚至高(gao)于農(nong)民(min)出(chu)售農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)的(de)(de)人均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)幅，這一連(lian)串的(de)(de)跳躍數(shu)字(zi)說(shuo)明農(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)，農(nong)業(ye)生產(chan)成本加大，農(nong)業(ye)的(de)(de)利潤空間被壓縮，農(nong)民(min)的(de)(de)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)最終受到影(ying)響，部分國(guo)家(jia)對農(nong)民(min)的(de)(de)補(bu)貼、減免稅和其(qi)他政策效力(li)已(yi)經被抵消(xiao)。國(guo)家(jia)統(tong)計局(ju)一季度的(de)(de)報告已(yi)經披露(lu)，主要農(nong)業(ye)生產(chan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)料購買價(jia)(jia)格(ge)大幅度上(shang)漲(zhang)，且漲(zhang)幅大大超過糧食、棉花(資(zi)(zi)(zi)訊,行情)和蔬菜(cai)等大宗農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)。
農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)異動原(yuan)因:一(yi)是成本的(de)(de)(de)推動。國內外上(shang)游原(yuan)材(cai)料、動力及燃料價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲過快，特別是由(you)于油、電、煤、運全(quan)面緊張，導致化工產(chan)品(pin)普遍漲價(jia)(jia)(jia)，造成農(nong)資(zi)生產(chan)企業成本上(shang)升，使得農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)大幅上(shang)漲。二(er)是需(xu)求的(de)(de)(de)拉動。國內外市場(chang)需(xu)求擴大，且2004-2008年(nian)(nian)連(lian)續5年(nian)(nian)“中央一(yi)號文件”的(de)(de)(de)發布及“兩減(jian)免三補貼(tie)四保障”政策(ce)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)施力度加大，提(ti)高了(le)農(nong)民生產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)積(ji)極性，再加上(shang)部分農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)的(de)(de)(de)持續上(shang)漲，刺(ci)激農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)不斷上(shang)漲。三是流(liu)(liu)通(tong)體(ti)制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。雖然基本形(xing)成了(le)多種市場(chang)主體(ti)、多種流(liu)(liu)通(tong)渠道共同參與農(nong)資(zi)經營(ying)的(de)(de)(de)格(ge)(ge)局，但(dan)由(you)于目前流(liu)(liu)通(tong)環節的(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)形(xing)勢(shi)日(ri)趨(qu)復雜，營(ying)銷網(wang)絡尚未健全(quan)，市場(chang)經營(ying)秩序難免不規范，無法排除農(nong)資(zi)經營(ying)企業借機哄抬價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)現(xian)象(xiang)。
農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)投(tou)(tou)入的(de)(de)(de)(de)結構和(he)數(shu)量變化(hua)(hua)對(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)有顯(xian)著的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)，據對(dui)化(hua)(hua)肥、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)用(yong)(yong)塑(su)料薄膜、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)用(yong)(yong)柴(chai)油、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥這(zhe)四(si)種農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)進(jin)行灰色關(guan)聯分析，這(zhe)四(si)種農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)入變化(hua)(hua)與農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)之(zhi)間都存(cun)在(zai)較強的(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)聯，其(qi)中農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥費(fei)用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關(guan)聯度(du)最(zui)高，關(guan)聯系數(shu)為72%，其(qi)次是化(hua)(hua)肥、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)用(yong)(yong)柴(chai)油，最(zui)小的(de)(de)(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)用(yong)(yong)塑(su)料薄膜費(fei)用(yong)(yong)投(tou)(tou)入關(guan)聯度(du)也(ye)達到(dao)61%。這(zhe)說明不同農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業生產資(zi)料投(tou)(tou)入對(dui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)存(cun)在(zai)差異，同時說明了農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥是一定時期農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)投(tou)(tou)入中漲(zhang)幅最(zui)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)，首先應(ying)適度(du)平抑(yi)穩定農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)藥的(de)(de)(de)(de)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)。
原(yuan)材料(liao)、能源價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)持(chi)(chi)續快(kuai)速上漲(zhang)(zhang)，成(cheng)為推動農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)上揚的(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)導(dao)力。這也導(dao)致(zhi)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)(de)(de)上漲(zhang)(zhang)具有(you)一定的(de)(de)(de)(de)剛性(xing)，短期內其價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上漲(zhang)(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)態(tai)勢不(bu)會發(fa)生大的(de)(de)(de)(de)逆轉，上漲(zhang)(zhang)壓力依(yi)然(ran)存在。而且原(yuan)材料(liao)、能源價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)上漲(zhang)(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)普通性(xing)帶有(you)深厚(hou)背景，能源價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)持(chi)(chi)續走高，國內外(wai)市場對農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)需求的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)擴張和(he)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)生產成(cheng)本持(chi)(chi)續上升的(de)(de)(de)(de)局面將(jiang)不(bu)會有(you)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)改變(bian)，農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)還將(jiang)呈持(chi)(chi)續走高的(de)(de)(de)(de)態(tai)勢。
2008年(nian)中(zhong)央一(yi)號文件(jian)提出，要繼續加(jia)大對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)種糧(liang)(liang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)綜(zong)合直(zhi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)力度。經國(guo)務院批準，2008年(nian)中(zhong)央財政(zheng)在(zai)2007年(nian)276億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼規(gui)模的(de)基礎上(shang)，新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)206億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)綜(zong)合直(zhi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)，進一(yi)步加(jia)大對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)種糧(liang)(liang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民的(de)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼力度。新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)后(hou)，2008年(nian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)綜(zong)合補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)達(da)到(dao)482億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，比上(shang)年(nian)增(zeng)長75%，加(jia)上(shang)從(cong)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)風(feng)險基金(jin)中(zhong)預(yu)計列(lie)支(zhi)的(de)151億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)糧(liang)(liang)食(shi)直(zhi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)，2008年(nian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)種糧(liang)(liang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民的(de)兩項直(zhi)接補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)規(gui)模達(da)到(dao)633億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，全國(guo)平均每(mei)畝補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼達(da)到(dao)41元(yuan)。2008年(nian)是(shi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)綜(zong)合直(zhi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)規(gui)模最(zui)大的(de)一(yi)年(nian)，也是(shi)發(fa)放(fang)最(zui)早(zao)、最(zui)快的(de)一(yi)年(nian)。財政(zheng)部(bu)已于2月20日將(jiang)(jiang)2008年(nian)633億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)直(zhi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)一(yi)次(ci)全部(bu)提前撥付(fu)到(dao)省、直(zhi)轄市(shi)(shi)、自治區，并督促(cu)各(ge)省盡快將(jiang)(jiang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)撥付(fu)到(dao)位，春耕前將(jiang)(jiang)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)一(yi)次(ci)性(xing)全部(bu)直(zhi)接兌付(fu)到(dao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)戶。這些措施的(de)實施，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)穩(wen)定(ding)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)價格(ge)起(qi)到(dao)了積極(ji)作(zuo)用。為了保(bao)護農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民利益和積極(ji)性(xing)，國(guo)家應繼續接連出臺一(yi)系列(lie)扶持農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)生產、促(cu)進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)流通、保(bao)證農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)供應、穩(wen)定(ding)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)價格(ge)的(de)政(zheng)策措施，從(cong)而抑制市(shi)(shi)場價格(ge)的(de)過快上(shang)漲。
具體來看，一(yi)是(shi)對(dui)于農資(zi)(zi)生產經營(ying)(ying)應建立(li)嚴格的(de)(de)市(shi)場準入制(zhi)度，培育扶(fu)持農資(zi)(zi)生產經營(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)龍頭企業，建議采取(qu)連鎖經營(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)形式，鼓勵產生品牌企業和(he)行業。二是(shi)建立(li)和(he)完善農資(zi)(zi)商(shang)品市(shi)場調控(kong)(kong)體系，特別是(shi)加強鄉、村兩(liang)(liang)級(ji)的(de)(de)農資(zi)(zi)價格和(he)流通環節(jie)的(de)(de)監管。三是(shi)改革和(he)完善農資(zi)(zi)儲(chu)備制(zhi)度，建立(li)中央和(he)地方(fang)兩(liang)(liang)級(ji)農資(zi)(zi)儲(chu)備制(zhi)度，形成平抑農資(zi)(zi)價格的(de)(de)調控(kong)(kong)機制(zhi)，減少(shao)因供需(xu)矛盾引起的(de)(de)農資(zi)(zi)價格變動(dong)。四是(shi)要(yao)建立(li)健全農資(zi)(zi)價格自律制(zhi)度，實行統一(yi)有序競爭(zheng)，以確(que)保農資(zi)(zi)價格的(de)(de)相(xiang)對(dui)穩定。五是(shi)要(yao)定期進行科(ke)(ke)技講座，提高農民的(de)(de)科(ke)(ke)普知識(shi)，鼓勵農民對(dui)農資(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)科(ke)(ke)學投入。
總之，堅(jian)持(chi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)取向與政(zheng)府調(diao)節(jie)相結(jie)合(he)的(de)政(zheng)策，培育農(nong)產品(pin)和(he)(he)要素市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)，使農(nong)資價(jia)格在競爭均衡(heng)的(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)中形成。避(bi)免(mian)在人(ren)為扭曲農(nong)資價(jia)格和(he)(he)資源配置(zhi)的(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)結(jie)構(gou)下，一(yi)旦價(jia)格偏離正(zheng)常市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)均衡(heng)價(jia)格，就(jiu)可能導致農(nong)資資源的(de)不合(he)理分(fen)配、供求關系的(de)失衡(heng)以及“黑市(shi)(shi)(shi)交(jiao)易”和(he)(he)“權利(li)尋租”等(deng)有悖于市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)效率的(de)現(xian)象(xiang)出(chu)現(xian)。
