玉米種子:多數品種要上漲
2011年(nian)我(wo)省市場將(jiang)呈(cheng)現(xian)以下幾個(ge)特點。個(ge)別暢(chang)銷品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)供應緊張(zhang),但(dan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子總量供需平衡有余。雖然(ran)2010年(nian)全國制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)總量降低,但(dan)加上有效庫(ku)存(cun),總體看市場能夠保證供應,但(dan)一些保護品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),由于(yu)為(wei)獨家經(jing)營,擁有品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)權(quan)的企業(ye)為(wei)追求最大(da)利潤(run),增加經(jing)銷商范例等(deng),存(cun)在故意提高價(jia)格,甚至(zhi)是缺(que)口(kou)經(jing)營,造成(cheng)局部供應緊張(zhang)局面(mian)。消費者對(dui)此應有心里準備及預期。品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格總體偏高,多(duo)數(shu)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格將(jiang)上漲。據調查分析,2010年(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產因多(duo)數(shu)地區(qu)受災減產,再加上基(ji)地成(cheng)本的增加,導致種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子收購(gou)價(jia)提高,預計(ji)2011年(nian)漲幅為(wei)25-30%,但(dan)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間(jian)差異明(ming)顯。優良品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受農(nong)民青(qing)睞(lai)。山(shan)東玉米(mi)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)構(gou)以鄭(zheng)單958、浚單20、魯單981、金海5號(hao)、農(nong)大(da)108等(deng)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)主,2010年(nian)在全省大(da)面(mian)積種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植,播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積超(chao)過(guo)2900萬畝(mu)；其他(ta)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)如中科11號(hao)、振杰2號(hao)等(deng)作為(wei)較新品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),面(mian)積有擴大(da)趨勢(shi),預計(ji)2011年(nian)面(mian)積將(jiang)增大(da)。
棉花(hua)種子(zi):今年質(zhi)量稍差(cha)
因受(shou)多(duo)雨寡照天氣影響(xiang),2010年棉花生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)最大問題是單產(chan)(chan)明顯降(jiang)低,個別(bie)地區平(ping)均(jun)比往年減產(chan)(chan)30-50%,繁制種田產(chan)(chan)量平(ping)均(jun)在60公(gong)斤左右,有的(de)地塊甚至報廢,而且種子芽(ya)率、健籽率與往年同期(qi)相比均(jun)有明顯降(jiang)低,預(yu)計芽(ya)率將下降(jiang)10%,健籽率更差。
2010年(nian)山(shan)東棉(mian)種(zhong)企業共實收繁制種(zhong)田(tian)19.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),其(qi)中常(chang)規(gui)17.74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),可產(chan)種(zhong)約1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),雜交棉(mian)1.57萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),可產(chan)種(zhong)約84萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),加上2010年(nian)6月(yue)末(mo)庫存近640萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),2011年(nian)共可供(gong)種(zhong)2240萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin)。受2010年(nian)后期高棉(mian)價(jia)影響,2011年(nian)棉(mian)花種(zhong)植面積將增加,預(yu)計(ji)會(hui)達到1400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),其(qi)中常(chang)規(gui)棉(mian)將超過1100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),需種(zhong)約2000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),雜交棉(mian)約300萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu),需種(zhong)120萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),共需種(zhong)2150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)(jin),種(zhong)子(zi)供(gong)應(ying)平衡略有(you)余(yu)。
大豆(dou)小麥種(zhong)子:供遠大于(yu)求
我省(sheng)(sheng)常年(nian)大(da)豆播種(zhong)面(mian)積近400余萬畝,需種(zhong)約2400萬公斤(jin),主要集中在濟寧(ning)、菏澤、臨(lin)沂、聊城等地(di)。據調查(cha),2010年(nian)我省(sheng)(sheng)大(da)豆種(zhong)子(zi)共實收(shou)29萬畝,產種(zhong)約3900余萬公斤(jin),大(da)于2011年(nian)2100萬公斤(jin)的需種(zhong)量。
由(you)于近幾(ji)年國(guo)家一直實行小(xiao)麥(mai)良種(zhong)(zhong)補貼全覆蓋(gai)政策(ce),2010年秋播(bo),我省(sheng)共(gong)安排小(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)繁(fan)育(yu)田203萬畝(mu),預計產種(zhong)(zhong)7.67億公斤,遠超過(guo)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)需求量,種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)數量上供應充足。
