根(gen)據當前水稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)實(shi)況(kuang)及(ji)未來天氣(qi)趨(qu)勢綜(zong)合(he)分析(xi)，預(yu)計(ji)2011年水稻(dao)(dao)中(zhong)后期主(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)蟲呈偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態勢，主(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)蟲有稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)、二(er)代(dai)螟蟲、稻(dao)(dao)飛虱及(ji)稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟。其(qi)中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3（4）級(ji)(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)300萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，其(qi)中(zhong)穗頸(jing)瘟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)150萬畝(mu)(mu)左右，重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區域主(zhu)要在川東北及(ji)盆周稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)常(chang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區。稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)400萬畝(mu)(mu)，川西、川北發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較重(zhong)(zhong)。紋枯病(bing)(bing)預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)900萬畝(mu)(mu)。二(er)代(dai)螟蟲預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部大發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4（5）級(ji)(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)1500萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。稻(dao)(dao)飛虱預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3（4）級(ji)(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)300萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級(ji)(ji))，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)200萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
1、稻瘟病預計中等發生，局部偏重發生（3（4）級），發生面積300萬畝次。依(yi)據：一(yi)是前(qian)(qian)期(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)廣。目前(qian)(qian)全省已(yi)有(you)(you)20個(ge)市(shi)（州）、89個(ge)縣(xian)（區(qu)(qu)）發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)45.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)去年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)少(shao)56.67萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)涉及除阿壩(ba)州外(wai)的全省所有(you)(you)地市(shi)，重發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)主要為川東北、川西南的南充(chong)、巴(ba)中(zhong)、達州、樂山、廣元(yuan)等市(shi)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)占當(dang)前(qian)(qian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)的70%以上(shang)(shang)。二是隨著6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)中(zhong)下旬出現的多(duo)次大(da)范(fan)圍降雨天(tian)氣過程(cheng)，葉瘟(wen)蔓(man)延(yan)速度(du)有(you)(you)所加(jia)(jia)快。7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)6日全省稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)45.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比30天(tian)前(qian)(qian)增加(jia)(jia)了35.69萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。截(jie)止6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)28日,南充(chong)全市(shi)稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)累計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)5.96萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，化(hua)苗面積(ji)(ji)(ji)78畝(mu)(mu)。其中(zhong)蓬安13個(ge)鄉鎮發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)葉瘟(wen)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)與危害程(cheng)度(du)重于常年，平均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株率12.6-95%，平均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率5.6-42.5%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)級 2-3級。截(jie)止6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)27日，犍為全縣(xian)30個(ge)鄉鎮均(jun)已(yi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)，累計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)5.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)18-24日調查(cha)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)品(pin)種協優(you)(you)(you)027、黔優(you)(you)(you)88、川香優(you)(you)(you)907典型田塊(kuai)，中(zhong)心病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)團病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率69-90%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指41.64-56.71，急斑率10.3-57.2%，已(yi)出現全田化(hua)苗現象。三是多(duo)質源(yuan)品(pin)種布局(ju)雖然在(zai)一(yi)定程(cheng)度(du)上(shang)(shang)提(ti)升了我省水稻品(pin)種對(dui)稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)的整體(ti)抗(kang)性，但大(da)面積(ji)(ji)(ji)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產上(shang)(shang)水稻主栽品(pin)種中(zhong)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)種所占比例仍然很(hen)高，目前(qian)(qian)部分品(pin)種發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)嚴重，如(ru)黔優(you)(you)(you)88、川香優(you)(you)(you)907、D優(you)(you)(you)6511、D優(you)(you)(you)527、K優(you)(you)(you)21、協優(you)(you)(you)027、特新6號(hao)、崗優(you)(you)(you)881、崗優(you)(you)(you)725、Ⅱ優(you)(you)(you)838、Ⅱ優(you)(you)(you)802等。四是7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)中(zhong)旬至8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)旬盆地區(qu)(qu)將有(you)(you)多(duo)次明顯的降雨天(tian)氣過程(cheng)，降水偏多(duo)，濕度(du)偏大(da)，對(dui)穗瘟(wen)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)十(shi)分有(you)(you)利。
2、水稻二代螟蟲預計偏重發生，局部大發生（4（5）級），發生面積1500萬畝次。依(yi)據(ju)(ju)：一(yi)是今年一(yi)代螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)總體偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積1651.58萬畝(mu)，比去(qu)年增(zeng)加42.18萬畝(mu)。二是由于(yu)今年一(yi)代發(fa)生(sheng)期(qi)(qi)較常年有(you)所推遲，高(gao)峰推遲拉長(chang)，部分地(di)方(fang)防治效果不(bu)理想，一(yi)代畝(mu)殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量高(gao)于(yu)去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)。據(ju)(ju)6月(yue)下旬峨眉(mei)、江(jiang)油、宜賓、儀隴等14個(ge)站點(dian)調查，一(yi)代螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)加權平(ping)均(jun)畝(mu)殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為439.72頭(tou)，防治田畝(mu)殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)278.59頭(tou)，未防治田枯(ku)心率10.12%，未防治田畝(mu)殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)2142.39頭(tou)，分別(bie)比去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao)34.98頭(tou)、33.94頭(tou)、0.57個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)和297.92頭(tou)。同(tong)(tong)時川西(xi)北部分地(di)方(fang)三化螟(ming)(ming)上升(sheng)明顯(xian)，應高(gao)度(du)重(zhong)視(shi)。三是氣(qi)象(xiang)預報盛夏期(qi)(qi)間我省大部地(di)區(qu)天氣(qi)以高(gao)溫高(gao)濕為主，盆地(di)內(nei)有(you)多(duo)次明顯(xian)降水(shui)過(guo)程，對螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)產卵、孵化有(you)一(yi)定影響。
3、稻飛虱預計中等發生，局部偏重發生（3（4）級），發生面積300萬畝次，特別要高度重視后期褐飛虱的遷入，嚴防當代遷入當代成災。依據：一是(shi)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)見蟲(chong)(chong)早(zao)但燈誘(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)偏(pian)低(di)。目前(qian)全(quan)省已發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)34.24萬(wan)畝(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)增加17.82萬(wan)畝(mu)。敘永(yong)截止6月(yue)(yue)15日(ri)(ri)，白背(bei)飛虱(shi)(shi)累(lei)計誘(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)144頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)多(duo)41.18%，比(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均值(zhi)少(shao)(shao)(shao)65.47%，比(bi)(bi)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均值(zhi)少(shao)(shao)(shao)76.77%。古藺(lin)(lin)7月(yue)(yue)4日(ri)(ri)調(diao)查(cha)，平(ping)均百(bai)叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)1909.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)特大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)2316.9頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，低(di)54.8%，達標田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)塊率低(di)19.6%。二是(shi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)密度(du)低(di)。興文(wen)6月(yue)(yue)9日(ri)(ri)調(diao)查(cha)，稻(dao)飛虱(shi)(shi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)平(ping)均667.11頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢，比(bi)(bi)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)的(de)1015.72頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢減少(shao)(shao)(shao)348.61頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)2633.33頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢減少(shao)(shao)(shao)1966.22頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。敘永(yong)6月(yue)(yue)15日(ri)(ri)調(diao)查(cha)，稻(dao)飛虱(shi)(shi)有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)塊率39.18%，主要集中在半山區(qu)。最高蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)5410頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢，低(di)于大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)（2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)8240頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢，2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)47040頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢）。古藺(lin)(lin)6月(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)調(diao)查(cha)，百(bai)叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)平(ping)均892.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)低(di)18.8%，比(bi)(bi)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)2007、2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)(shao)3.17倍和(he)15.28倍。三是(shi)氣象預報盛夏期(qi)(qi)間盆地內有(you)多(duo)次區(qu)域性暴雨過程，洪澇(lao)強度(du)接近(jin)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，利于稻(dao)飛虱(shi)(shi)的(de)遷入為害。
4、稻縱卷葉螟預計中等發生(3級)，發生面積200萬畝次，晚熟遲栽稻田和再生稻區要重點監控。依據(ju)：一是截止7月(yue)6日稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉(xie)螟(ming)(ming)已(yi)累計(ji)發生10.58萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)去年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)增加(jia)4.33萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，主(zhu)要集中在川東南(nan)片區。二(er)是目前田間(jian)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)、卷(juan)葉(xie)率(lv)高于(yu)(yu)去年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)。敘永6月(yue)27日調(diao)查平(ping)均百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)、卷(juan)葉(xie)率(lv)為358頭、0.33%，去年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)為0。威(wei)遠6月(yue)30日調(diao)查平(ping)均百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)、卷(juan)葉(xie)率(lv)為4頭、0.04%，去年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)為0。達(da)縣6月(yue)24日始(shi)見遷入蛾(e)，比(bi)去年遲17天(tian)，加(jia)權畝(mu)(mu)(mu)平(ping)蛾(e)量(liang)19.5頭。7月(yue)5日河市調(diao)查，平(ping)均百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)新(xin)卷(juan)蟲(chong)(chong)苞(bao)19.8個，最少6個，最多新(xin)卷(juan)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)苞(bao)30個。古(gu)藺7月(yue)4日調(diao)查，稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉(xie)螟(ming)(ming)燈下未見蟲(chong)(chong)，田間(jian)平(ping)均卷(juan)葉(xie)率(lv)為1.2%，達(da)標田面積0.6萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，畝(mu)(mu)(mu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)平(ping)均3000頭。三是7-8月(yue)天(tian)氣條件有利(li)于(yu)(yu)稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉(xie)螟(ming)(ming)的遷入為害。
5、稻曲病預計偏重發生（4級），發生面積400萬畝，川西、川北發生較重。依據(ju)：一(yi)是(shi)大面(mian)積主(zhu)栽品(pin)種對稻(dao)曲(qu)病抗性(xing)不強。二是(shi)盛夏期間的多濕天氣(qi)，特別是(shi)7月中旬至8月上旬的多次降雨過程十分有利(li)于(yu)稻(dao)曲(qu)病的發生。
6、水稻紋枯病：預計偏重發生(4級)，發生面積900萬畝。依據：紋枯病是我省水稻上的常發病害，近年發生面積始終維持在1000萬畝左右，田間累積菌源多。近年我省旱育秧移栽面積都穩定在1500萬畝左右，旱育秧拋秧分蘗力強，長勢旺，田間郁蔽度大，密度增加濕度增大，加之7-8月的高溫高濕天氣，有利于紋枯病的發生。
