根據近期(qi)監測結果，結合(he)水(shui)稻長勢及天氣趨勢綜合(he)分析，預計第(di)五(wu)（3）代稻飛虱(shi)在鄂(e)東(dong)、江漢平原(yuan)(yuan)稻區中(zhong)等(deng)偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)，鄂(e)西中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)；五(wu)（3）代稻縱卷(juan)葉螟在鄂(e)東(dong)、江漢平原(yuan)(yuan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)，田間危害(hai)盛期(qi)在八(ba)月中(zhong)下旬。依據如下：
一、田間基(ji)數較(jiao)高，褐飛虱(shi)比例較(jiao)高
稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)：7月(yue)底我(wo)省出現連續(xu)高溫天(tian)氣，稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)超(chao)標田塊明顯增(zeng)多，田間(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量持續(xu)增(zeng)加(jia)，鄂(e)西(xi)燈(deng)下蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)峰明顯，全省16個市州(zhou)加(jia)權(quan)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量450.6頭(tou)(tou)，褐(he)(he)飛(fei)虱(shi)比(bi)例(li)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)18.3%。7月(yue)31日燈(deng)下監測，鄖西(xi)燈(deng)下蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量1874頭(tou)(tou)，其(qi)中(zhong)褐(he)(he)飛(fei)虱(shi)41頭(tou)(tou)；枝江(jiang)燈(deng)下累計誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)594頭(tou)(tou)，其(qi)中(zhong)褐(he)(he)飛(fei)虱(shi)275頭(tou)(tou)；宣恩燈(deng)下蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量310頭(tou)(tou)，其(qi)中(zhong)褐(he)(he)飛(fei)虱(shi)48頭(tou)(tou)。8月(yue)初田間(jian)調查，鄂(e)西(xi)稻(dao)區田間(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量相對較高，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量933.3頭(tou)(tou)，宜昌平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量1120頭(tou)(tou)，局部田塊高達6700頭(tou)(tou)；恩施(shi)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量1000頭(tou)(tou)，十堰平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量620頭(tou)(tou)。江(jiang)漢平原(yuan)仙桃平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量798頭(tou)(tou)，荊州(zhou)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量660頭(tou)(tou)。鄂(e)東咸(xian)寧平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量600頭(tou)(tou)，黃岡平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量500頭(tou)(tou)。其(qi)他縣(xian)市田間(jian)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量不足500頭(tou)(tou)。
稻縱卷葉螟：全(quan)省(sheng)大部(bu)發生普遍，但分(fen)布不均。8月初田(tian)(tian)間(jian)調查(cha)一般市(shi)縣(xian)畝(mu)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)50－300頭，但鄂(e)西(xi)、鄂(e)東(dong)(dong)田(tian)(tian)間(jian)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)較高(gao)，鄂(e)西(xi)恩施平(ping)均畝(mu)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)1200頭，局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊達(da)5253頭；鄂(e)東(dong)(dong)咸寧平(ping)均畝(mu)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)1362頭，局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊達(da)5500頭。鄂(e)東(dong)(dong)、江(jiang)漢(han)平(ping)原田(tian)(tian)間(jian)幼(you)(you)蟲量(liang)較高(gao)，江(jiang)漢(han)平(ping)原武漢(han)市(shi)平(ping)均畝(mu)幼(you)(you)蟲量(liang)1005頭，局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)達(da)10000頭，荊州平(ping)均畝(mu)幼(you)(you)蟲量(liang)956頭，局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)達(da)2100頭；鄂(e)東(dong)(dong)鄂(e)州平(ping)均畝(mu)幼(you)(you)蟲量(liang)1100頭，局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)達(da)2300頭；其他縣(xian)市(shi)平(ping)均畝(mu)幼(you)(you)蟲量(liang)在300頭以下。
二、水稻(dao)長勢有利于“兩遷(qian)”害蟲(chong)發生
當前我(wo)省大部(bu)中稻(dao)已(yi)進入抽穗揚花盛期(qi)，晚稻(dao)多(duo)處(chu)于分(fen)(fen)蘗至(zhi)幼穗分(fen)(fen)化期(qi)，營養條件豐富，田間(jian)蔭蔽(bi)度高，葉(xie)片嫩綠(lv)，有利(li)稻(dao)飛(fei)虱、稻(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟取(qu)食為害。
三、氣象(xiang)條(tiao)件對兩遷害蟲發生有利
據氣(qi)(qi)象預(yu)報(bao)，8月份(fen)我省(sheng)除(chu)鄂東南降(jiang)水(shui)略(lve)偏少(shao)以外(wai)，其(qi)它大部(bu)降(jiang)水(shui)偏多，氣(qi)(qi)溫鄂東南略(lve)高，其(qi)他略(lve)偏低。冷空氣(qi)(qi)及(ji)降(jiang)水(shui)過程(cheng)大致出現在(zai)1-2日、19-22日、25-29日，臺風(feng)“梅花”預(yu)計將(jiang)從浙江(jiang)北部(bu)沿海至長江(jiang)出海口(kou)登(deng)陸(lu)，可(ke)能形成倒槽，有利于“兩遷(qian)”害蟲的回遷(qian)和產(chan)卵孵化(hua)，存在(zai)東部(bu)稻區暴發的風(feng)險。
請各地一定要結合當前兩遷害蟲發生情況和天氣變化，加強監測，分類指導防控。
