2011年(nian)(nian)7月25~27日(ri)，自治區(qu)植保總(zong)站召集全(quan)區(qu)14個市植保站負責測(ce)報(bao)的技術人員總(zong)結(jie)分析(xi)了今年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物病(bing)蟲發生實況，并根據全(quan)區(qu)下(xia)半(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物品(pin)種布(bu)局、農(nong)(nong)事(shi)情況、氣候預報(bao)等(deng)因素對(dui)下(xia)半(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)病(bing)蟲發生趨勢進行(xing)了會(hui)商分析(xi)，預測(ce)全(quan)區(qu)下(xia)半(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物主(zhu)要病(bing)蟲鼠總(zong)體(ti)發生程度為中等(deng)，局部中等(deng)偏重。
1 主(zhu)要(yao)病蟲(chong)發生(sheng)趨勢
1.1 糧食作物
1.1.1 螟蟲 三化螟：預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)為中等(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)局部(bu)(bu)中等(deng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積290萬(wan)畝。主要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區域在桂(gui)(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)西、桂(gui)(gui)中的大部(bu)(bu)及桂(gui)(gui)東南、右江(jiang)河谷的部(bu)(bu)分稻區。二化螟： 預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)為輕(qing)(qing)局部(bu)(bu)中等(deng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積100萬(wan)畝，主要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區域為桂(gui)(gui)林(lin)市(shi)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)縣。
1.1.2 稻飛虱(shi) 預計發生程度為中等(deng)局部大發生，發生面積1020萬畝，全區普遍發生。
1.1.3 稻縱卷葉螟 預計發(fa)生程度為中等局部(bu)中等偏重(zhong)，發(fa)生面積(ji)730萬畝(mu)。全(quan)區普遍(bian)發(fa)生，重(zhong)發(fa)生區在桂(gui)東北、桂(gui)東南大部(bu)及沿(yan)海、桂(gui)西(xi)局部(bu)。
1.1.4 稻紋枯病 預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)程度為中等(deng)偏(pian)重局部大發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)910萬(wan)畝(mu)，全區(qu)普遍(bian)發(fa)生(sheng)。
1.1.5 稻瘟病 預計發生程度為(wei)中等偏(pian)(pian)輕局(ju)部中等偏(pian)(pian)重，發生面積390萬畝。桂北、桂東南和(he)沿海地區(qu)種植感病品(pin)種較多的稻區(qu)穗頸瘟偏(pian)(pian)重流行的幾率較大(da)。
1.1.6 水(shui)稻細菌性條斑病(bing) 預計發生程度為輕局部(bu)中(zhong)等，發生面積120萬(wan)畝(mu)。主要發生區(qu)域在桂(gui)東(dong)北(bei)、桂(gui)東(dong)南及沿海(hai)部(bu)分稻區(qu)，發生輕于上(shang)年。
1.1.7 玉(yu)米病蟲(chong) 預計玉(yu)米蚜發(fa)生(sheng)程度為(wei)中等(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積96萬畝；玉(yu)米螟發(fa)生(sheng)程度為(wei)中等(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積100萬畝；玉(yu)米紋枯病發(fa)生(sheng)程度為(wei)中等(deng)偏輕，發(fa)生(sheng)面積70萬畝。
1.1.8 其它病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong) 水稻(dao)胡麻葉斑病(bing)(bing)、白葉枯病(bing)(bing)的發生有加(jia)重態(tai)勢，必(bi)須引(yin)起(qi)注(zhu)意(yi)；南方水稻(dao)黑條(tiao)矮縮病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)、赤枯病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)細菌性褐條(tiao)病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)葉水蠅、稻(dao)象(xiang)甲(jia)、稻(dao)蝽(chun)蟓(xiang)、稻(dao)薊馬、稻(dao)葉蟬、粘(zhan)蟲(chong)、蚜蟲(chong)、眉紋夜蛾等(deng)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)在局部(bu)有不同程度的發生。
1.2 經濟作物病蟲
1.2.1 預計甘蔗(zhe)綿蚜發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)局(ju)部(bu)中等(deng)偏(pian)重，發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積420萬(wan)畝(mu)；甘蔗(zhe)螟(ming)蟲發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)，發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積340萬(wan)畝(mu)；甘蔗(zhe)薊(ji)馬發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)局(ju)部(bu)中等(deng)偏(pian)重，發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積260萬(wan)畝(mu)；甘蔗(zhe)土天(tian)牛發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)為(wei)(wei)輕(qing)(qing)局(ju)部(bu)中等(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)，發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積56萬(wan)畝(mu)。
1.2.2 預計柑桔(jie)紅蜘蛛發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)局(ju)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)230萬畝；潛(qian)葉蛾(e)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)輕局(ju)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)140萬畝；銹壁(bi)虱發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)130萬畝；柑桔(jie)瘡痂病(bing)、潰瘍病(bing)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)輕局(ju)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)90萬畝；炭疽病(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)60萬畝。
1.2.3 預計小菜(cai)蛾(e)、菜(cai)青蟲、菜(cai)蚜(ya)等(deng)(deng)蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)450萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；黃曲(qu)條跳甲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)(deng)局部中等(deng)(deng)偏重，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)155萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；斜紋夜蛾(e)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)(deng)偏輕(qing)局部中等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)82萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。白菜(cai)霜霉病發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)(deng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)75萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。白菜(cai)軟腐病、瓜(gua)類疫(yi)病、瓜(gua)類枯萎病等(deng)(deng)病蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度為(wei)(wei)中等(deng)(deng)偏輕(qing)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)120萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。
此外，局部地(di)區粉(fen)虱、美洲斑潛(qian)蠅(ying)、瓜類枯萎病、瓜類疫(yi)病、青枯病、馬(ma)蹄桿(gan)枯病、馬(ma)蹄白(bai)螟(ming)、白(bai)粉(fen)病、月(yue)柿(shi)炭(tan)疽病、香蕉(jiao)葉斑病、香蕉(jiao)線蟲、尺蠖等病蟲將有不同程(cheng)度的發生。
1.3 蝗(huang)蟲 預計下半年土蝗(huang)發(fa)生程度(du)為輕(qing)(qing)局(ju)部(bu)中(zhong)等偏輕(qing)(qing)，發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)110萬(wan)畝；東亞飛蝗(huang)發(fa)生程度(du)為輕(qing)(qing)局(ju)部(bu)中(zhong)等，發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)26萬(wan)畝。
1.4 福(fu)壽螺 預計發生(sheng)程度(du)為中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)輕局部中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)，發生(sheng)面積230萬畝。
1.5 農(nong)田害鼠 預(yu)計發(fa)生(sheng)程(cheng)度為中等(deng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)1020萬畝(mu)。
2 預報主要依據
2.1病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)源(yuan)基數 近期各地調查(cha)：第(di)二(er)代(dai)三化螟發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)輕(qing)，畝(mu)殘蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)31~348頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)達(da)560~1800頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)局(ju)(ju)部高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)3062頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，大部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區殘蟲(chong)量(liang)比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少3.1%~33.2%。7月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)南(nan)部分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區調查(cha)，田(tian)(tian)間畝(mu)有幼蟲(chong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)25~100頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)150~310頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)個別(bie)(bie)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)6250頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，枯心率(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)0.07%~0.4%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)0.85%~2.8%。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟 桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)北(bei)局(ju)(ju)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區生(sheng)(sheng)長(chang)嫩綠的(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、遲(chi)插(cha)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)不同程度(du)(du)受到為害，蟲(chong)口密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)少于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)多(duo)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，畝(mu)蛾量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)23~137.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)276.7~1505頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；百(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)卵(luan)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)4~15粒，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)24~132粒；百(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)幼蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)2~43頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)120~344.4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區個別(bie)(bie)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)688~2260頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi) 田(tian)(tian)間平均(jun)蟲(chong)口密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，但中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區桂(gui)(gui)及東(dong)北(bei)局(ju)(ju)部早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)遲(chi)熟品種密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)則高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，桂(gui)(gui)南(nan)早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)百(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)72~357頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)900~1481頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，局(ju)(ju)部密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)較高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)達(da)3000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)以(yi)上(shang)；桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)北(bei)遲(chi)熟早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)百(bai)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)259~950頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)1652~5314頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，個別(bie)(bie)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)達(da)11255~34280頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing) 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)(cong)(cong)率(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)12.9%~44.6%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)54.0%~100%；病(bing)(bing)株率(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)11.5%~38.1%,高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)42.8%~96.6%；病(bing)(bing)指一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)2.5~17.2，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)19.5~38.2。早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)穗瘟(wen) 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)重于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，病(bing)(bing)穗率(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)0.6%~3.7%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)9.1%~24%，桂(gui)(gui)南(nan)、桂(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)個別(bie)(bie)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)達(da)78.0%~100%。
2.2農業生產(chan)情況作(zuo)物品種布局 截至7月15日，全區早稻收(shou)割132.6萬(wan)(wan)畝，同(tong)比(bi)少25.7萬(wan)(wan)畝；我區晚(wan)稻計(ji)劃種植面積(ji)1463.1萬(wan)(wan)畝，比(bi)去年少17.5萬(wan)(wan)畝；目前中稻種植面積(ji)已達209.5萬(wan)(wan)畝，同(tong)比(bi)減6.8萬(wan)(wan)畝，其中雜交(jiao)稻194.3萬(wan)(wan)畝，優(you)質(zhi)稻164.5萬(wan)(wan)畝，超級(ji)稻128.7萬(wan)(wan)畝。
2.3氣(qi)(qi)候條件(jian) 據廣西(xi)區氣(qi)(qi)象科技(ji)信息中心預報：2011年8月廣西(xi)大部(bu)地區平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)溫偏(pian)高0.5℃左右；降雨量(liang)桂西(xi)南(nan)及沿海地區偏(pian)多1～2成，其(qi)余地區偏(pian)少1～3成；月內可能(neng)有(you)1～2個(ge)熱(re)帶(dai)氣(qi)(qi)旋影響廣西(xi)。9月大部(bu)地區氣(qi)(qi)溫略偏(pian)高；降雨量(liang)桂東南(nan)偏(pian)多1～2成，其(qi)余地區偏(pian)少1～3成。
3 監控意見
3.1 堅持做(zuo)好(hao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)監測(ce)工作(zuo) 各級植保(bao)部門(men)(men)要深入田間做(zuo)好(hao)調查(cha)，堅持“天(tian)天(tian)調查(cha)、五天(tian)一(yi)報(bao)、重大病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)突發事件實時(shi)(shi)匯報(bao)”的工作(zuo)制度。在(zai)做(zuo)好(hao)常規病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)調查(cha)的同時(shi)(shi)，加強對突發性(xing)、災害性(xing)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)如(ru)水(shui)稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)、東亞飛蝗、粘蟲(chong)(chong)、斜紋夜(ye)蛾的監測(ce)，及(ji)時(shi)(shi)掌握病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發生動態，準(zhun)確發布病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)情(qing)報(bao)。要積極向(xiang)當(dang)地(di)政府以及(ji)上級業務部門(men)(men)匯報(bao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發生動態，當(dang)好(hao)領導的參謀(mou)，指(zhi)導面上防治(zhi)。
3.2 明(ming)確防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)主(zhu)攻對象 就全區而言，晚稻(dao)的防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)主(zhu)攻對象為“三(san)蟲(chong)二病(bing)(bing)”，即(ji)三(san)化螟(ming)、稻(dao)飛虱(shi)、稻(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉螟(ming)、稻(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)。前(qian)期(qi)重點防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)三(san)化螟(ming)、稻(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉螟(ming)、葉瘟(wen)，挑治(zhi)(zhi)或兼治(zhi)(zhi)水稻(dao)細菌(jun)性(xing)條(tiao)斑病(bing)(bing)。中后期(qi)則(ze)主(zhu)要(yao)防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)稻(dao)飛虱(shi)、三(san)化螟(ming)、穗頸瘟(wen)、稻(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)、兼治(zhi)(zhi)稻(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)。各地(di)(di)植(zhi)保部(bu)門(men)應根據當(dang)地(di)(di)農作(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生實況，因地(di)(di)制宜做好(hao)防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)分類指導，特別是要(yao)做好(hao)晚稻(dao)秧田(tian)及本(ben)田(tian)前(qian)期(qi)南方水稻(dao)黑(hei)條(tiao)矮縮病(bing)(bing)的監測和防(fang)控工作(zuo)。
3.3 對于病蟲的防治提倡經濟效益與生態效益并重，協調使用各種科學有效的防治措施，大力推廣頻振式殺蟲燈、性誘劑、毒餌站等植保硬技術，應急防治推廣使用安全、高效、對口農藥，禁(jin)止高毒、劇毒、高殘留農藥的使用。
廣西壯族自治區農作物病蟲測報站
