全(quan)國(guo)農業技(ji)術推(tui)廣(guang)服務(wu)中(zhong)心組織科研、教(jiao)學和(he)推(tui)廣(guang)單(dan)位(wei)專家會商分析預測，2012年水稻(dao)病(bing)蟲(chong)害總(zong)體呈偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生態(tai)勢，發(fa)(fa)生程度重于2011年，預計發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積(ji)15億畝次(ci)(ci)，同比(bi)增加5%。其中(zhong)，蟲(chong)害以稻(dao)飛(fei)虱、稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)和(he)二(er)化螟(ming)為(wei)主，全(quan)國(guo)大部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積(ji)10.4億畝次(ci)(ci)，同比(bi)增加5%；病(bing)害以紋枯病(bing)、稻(dao)瘟病(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)、南方水稻(dao)黑條矮縮(suo)病(bing)為(wei)主，總(zong)體為(wei)中(zhong)等至偏(pian)重流行，發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積(ji)4.6億畝，同比(bi)增加6%。
一、發生趨勢(shi)
（一）水(shui)稻蟲(chong)害
稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱在華南(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)大(da)部(bu)和(he)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)流域南(nan)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生態勢(shi)，其他(ta)常發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生程度重于(yu)2011年(nian)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積約4億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，較(jiao)(jiao)2011年(nian)增加11%；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)葉螟(ming)在東(dong)南(nan)沿海，以及(ji)沿江(jiang)(jiang)和(he)湖庫稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，其他(ta)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積約3億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，較(jiao)(jiao)2011年(nian)增加15%；二化螟(ming)在長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)游和(he)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)北部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)將偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)東(dong)部(bu)和(he)東(dong)北大(da)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積2億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，與2011年(nian)同期持平；三(san)化螟(ming)在西(xi)(xi)南(nan)和(he)華南(nan)局部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，其他(ta)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生面(mian)(mian)積2500萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)，較(jiao)(jiao)2011年(nian)減少(shao)13%；大(da)螟(ming)在江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)和(he)長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)將中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生，種(zhong)群呈(cheng)上升態勢(shi)。
（二）水(shui)稻病害
稻(dao)紋(wen)枯病(bing)在(zai)(zai)全國大部將(jiang)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)3億畝，較(jiao)(jiao)2011年(nian)增加(jia)(jia)9%；稻(dao)瘟病(bing)在(zai)(zai)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)、華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游和東北等(deng)常發(fa)(fa)區(qu)將(jiang)中(zhong)等(deng)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行，西南(nan)(nan)(nan)和東北大部種植(zhi)感病(bing)品種區(qu)域存(cun)在(zai)(zai)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行的(de)可能，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)8000萬畝次，較(jiao)(jiao)2011年(nian)增加(jia)(jia)20%；西南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部、華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)和江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)南(nan)(nan)(nan)方水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)黑(hei)條矮縮病(bing)，江(jiang)淮和長江(jiang)下(xia)游稻(dao)區(qu)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)條紋(wen)葉枯病(bing)等(deng)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)病(bing)毒病(bing)仍有偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行的(de)風險，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)2000萬畝左(zuo)右。稻(dao)曲病(bing)、細菌性(xing)病(bing)害等(deng)呈(cheng)加(jia)(jia)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)態勢，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范圍和發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)有所擴大。
二、預測依據
（一）病蟲基數(shu)
據冬前各地調查，害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)總體基數(shu)偏(pian)低，與前幾年(nian)的大發(fa)生態勢相比，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源壓力有所減(jian)輕(qing)。其中，二化螟(ming)冬前基數(shu)東(dong)(dong)北北部(bu)(bu)稻區(qu)(qu)畝蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)9300頭(tou)(tou)，較上(shang)(shang)年(nian)減(jian)少37%；華(hua)南東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)、西南東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)、江南中西部(bu)(bu)、長江中游和(he)東(dong)(dong)北中部(bu)(bu)稻區(qu)(qu)畝蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)1500-5000頭(tou)(tou)，重慶和(he)安(an)徽略高(gao)(gao)于上(shang)(shang)年(nian)，其余一(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)較上(shang)(shang)年(nian)減(jian)少15%-25%；其它(ta)稻區(qu)(qu)畝蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)500頭(tou)(tou)以下，略低于上(shang)(shang)年(nian)。田(tian)間三化螟(ming)冬前畝蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)與上(shang)(shang)年(nian)接近，畝蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)150-500頭(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)的900頭(tou)(tou)。大部(bu)(bu)稻區(qu)(qu)稻瘟病和(he)稻紋枯病田(tian)間菌(jun)源廣(guang)泛存在(zai)，具備病害流行(xing)的菌(jun)源基礎(chu)。
（二） 水(shui)稻(dao)品種和(he)栽培條件
我國水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)主(zhu)栽(zai)品種仍(reng)以粗(cu)稈大(da)(da)穗、優質高(gao)(gao)產型(xing)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)，生長量大(da)(da)、田(tian)間郁蔽，易形成(cheng)適(shi)溫高(gao)(gao)濕的(de)(de)田(tian)間小氣候，有(you)利于(yu)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)病蟲(chong)(chong)害的(de)(de)發生；當(dang)前大(da)(da)部水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)品種抗病抗蟲(chong)(chong)性普遍不高(gao)(gao)，有(you)利于(yu)褐飛虱(shi)、稻(dao)(dao)瘟病、水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)病毒病、稻(dao)(dao)曲病等病蟲(chong)(chong)害的(de)(de)發生與流行(xing)。另(ling)外，就栽(zai)培制度而言，華南、江(jiang)(jiang)南、長江(jiang)(jiang)中游稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)單、雙季稻(dao)(dao)混栽(zai)面積大(da)(da)，栽(zai)插期、生育期不整齊，橋梁(liang)田(tian)多，有(you)利于(yu)遷飛性害蟲(chong)(chong)和螟蟲(chong)(chong)的(de)(de)遷移與輾(zhan)轉為(wei)(wei)害。
（三） 氣象條件(jian)
據(ju)國(guo)家氣(qi)候(hou)中(zhong)心預測，2011年(nian)(nian)入(ru)冬(dong)偏晚(wan)，且前(qian)冬(dong)偏暖，對(dui)螟蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)等害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)越(yue)冬(dong)比較(jiao)有(you)利(li)，1月中(zhong)旬以后，我(wo)國(guo)氣(qi)溫(wen)總體較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期偏低，冷(leng)暖變化幅度(du)較(jiao)大(da)，對(dui)螟蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)越(yue)冬(dong)會(hui)造成一定影響；但華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)及境外蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)地(di)平均氣(qi)溫(wen)同(tong)比基(ji)本(ben)持平，降水同(tong)比略偏多(duo)，總體大(da)氣(qi)熱量和(he)(he)水分(fen)條(tiao)件(jian)對(dui)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)越(yue)冬(dong)比上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)有(you)利(li)。2012年(nian)(nian)春(chun)季(ji)，境外蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)地(di)中(zhong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)半(ban)島同(tong)比偏暖明顯，熱量條(tiao)件(jian)有(you)利(li)于蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)生(sheng)存、取食(shi)、繁殖，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)偏高(gao)，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)西(xi)部(bu)降雨(yu)量偏多(duo)，可能導致“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)發生(sheng)期提前(qian)，局部(bu)遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)量偏大(da)。另據(ju)有(you)關專家分(fen)析，2012年(nian)(nian)夏(xia)季(ji)江淮中(zhong)、西(xi)部(bu)氣(qi)溫(wen)偏低，田間熱量條(tiao)件(jian)對(dui)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的生(sheng)存、繁殖十分(fen)有(you)利(li)；江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)部(bu)、江漢東(dong)部(bu)和(he)(he)江淮地(di)區(qu)(qu)在梅雨(yu)期多(duo)對(dui)流性(xing)降水，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部(bu)多(duo)臺風降水，對(dui)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)和(he)(he)流行性(xing)病(bing)害(hai)的發生(sheng)十分(fen)有(you)利(li)；且2012年(nian)(nian)登陸我(wo)國(guo)的臺風數多(duo)于上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)，對(dui)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)遷(qian)(qian)入(ru)和(he)(he)病(bing)害(hai)流行更為(wei)有(you)利(li)。
（病蟲害測報處）
