根(gen)據當前病(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況，結(jie)合省氣(qi)象臺7 ~9月(yue)天氣(qi)預報及(ji)玉(yu)米生(sheng)(sheng)態條件綜(zong)合分析，預計今年我省玉(yu)米中(zhong)(zhong)后期病(bing)蟲總體偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，玉(yu)米紅蜘蛛危害(hai)(hai)程度將(jiang)明顯(xian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于上年，其(qi)他病(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)與上年持平。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)：二(er)代玉(yu)米螟偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積650萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，南(nan)部地(di)(di)(di)(di)區為(wei)害(hai)(hai)高峰期在(zai)(zai)(zai)8月(yue)上中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，北部地(di)(di)(di)(di)區為(wei)害(hai)(hai)高峰期在(zai)(zai)(zai)8月(yue)下旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)9月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區域在(zai)(zai)(zai)忻(xin)州(zhou)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)、運(yun)城；三代玉(yu)米螟偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積228萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)運(yun)城、臨汾，為(wei)害(hai)(hai)高峰期在(zai)(zai)(zai)9月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)下旬(xun)(xun)；玉(yu)米紅蜘蛛中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)，局(ju)部偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積510萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，為(wei)害(hai)(hai)高峰期在(zai)(zai)(zai)8月(yue)初至(zhi)8月(yue)下旬(xun)(xun)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區域主要在(zai)(zai)(zai)運(yun)城、晉中(zhong)(zhong)、呂梁、太原(yuan)、忻(xin)州(zhou)、朔州(zhou)等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)；玉(yu)米大(da)（小）斑(ban)病(bing)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積1200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝左右，流行盛期在(zai)(zai)(zai)8月(yue)上旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)9月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區域在(zai)(zai)(zai)大(da)同盆地(di)(di)(di)(di)、忻(xin)定盆地(di)(di)(di)(di)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)東山(shan)(shan)以及(ji)太行山(shan)(shan)等(deng)冷涼山(shan)(shan)區；另外，晉中(zhong)(zhong)、呂梁、臨汾等(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)以粘(zhan)蟲、棉鈴蟲為(wei)主的夜蛾科幼蟲將(jiang)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積300萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝。
二、預報依據
1、當前蟲情 據各地(di)(di)調(diao)查，當前(qian)我省(sheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)處(chu)(chu)于(yu)一代(dai)(dai)(dai)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)盛(sheng)期，南部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)處(chu)(chu)于(yu)一代(dai)(dai)(dai)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)盛(sheng)末期，發(fa)育進度總體較(jiao)常年推遲3-7天，截止7月(yue)17日，全省(sheng)一代(dai)(dai)(dai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積達(da)(da)到475萬畝，運城(cheng)(cheng)、臨(lin)汾、晉城(cheng)(cheng)、長治、忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州(zhou)等地(di)(di)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)重(zhong)，忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州(zhou)市(shi)(shi)忻(xin)(xin)(xin)府區(qu)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)被(bei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為17%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)11頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，河曲縣(xian)(xian)平(ping)均(jun)被(bei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)31.5%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)29頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；運城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)平(ping)均(jun)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為7.6%，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)50%，平(ping)均(jun)百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)4-6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou),最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)30頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；臨(lin)汾市(shi)(shi)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)4～12%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)2～3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)10頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范(fan)圍、蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)均(jun)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)上(shang)(shang)年同期；前(qian)期玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛在運城(cheng)(cheng)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、朔(shuo)州(zhou)等地(di)(di)不(bu)但(dan)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)早，而且蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)密度高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，蔓(man)延(yan)快，進入七月(yue)份后，兩場大范(fan)圍的(de)降水使紅(hong)(hong)(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛上(shang)(shang)升勢頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)得到一定(ding)控制，但(dan)隨著雨后的(de)蒸騰效應，運城(cheng)(cheng)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、呂梁(liang)、朔(shuo)州(zhou)等地(di)(di)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛為害(hai)(hai)部(bu)(bu)位迅速上(shang)(shang)移，并有(you)(you)(you)部(bu)(bu)分田(tian)塊(kuai)螨株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)達(da)(da)到70%-80%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)螨量(liang)超過萬頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，如運城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)(shi)萬榮(rong)縣(xian)(xian)、聞喜縣(xian)(xian)平(ping)均(jun)百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)螨量(liang)4000-5000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，嚴(yan)重(zhong)田(tian)百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)達(da)(da)1000-15000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)大（小）斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)不(bu)但(dan)較(jiao)常年發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)早，且發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范(fan)圍廣，在忻(xin)(xin)(xin)定(ding)盆地(di)(di)、太行(xing)山區(qu)、晉中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東山均(jun)有(you)(you)(you)明顯發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心。7月(yue)15日忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州(zhou)市(shi)(shi)普查，代(dai)(dai)(dai)縣(xian)(xian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為11%，忻(xin)(xin)(xin)府區(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為20%，原平(ping)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為35%，定(ding)襄縣(xian)(xian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)為90%，目(mu)前(qian)大多(duo)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)上(shang)(shang)有(you)(you)(you)2個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉，每(mei)個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉上(shang)(shang)有(you)(you)(you)2-3個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)斑，少量(liang)地(di)(di)塊(kuai)的(de)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)上(shang)(shang)出(chu)現(xian)了(le)5-6個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉，1個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉上(shang)(shang)有(you)(you)(you)3-5個(ge)病(bing)(bing)(bing)斑。另(ling)外，近期調(diao)查發(fa)現(xian)，二代(dai)(dai)(dai)粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)在運城(cheng)(cheng)、臨(lin)汾、呂梁(liang)、太原、忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州(zhou)的(de)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)、高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)粱(liang)田(tian)出(chu)現(xian)嚴(yan)重(zhong)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)，汾陽(yang)市(shi)(shi)重(zhong)發(fa)區(qu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)粱(liang)被(bei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)80%—90%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)300—400頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，洪洞縣(xian)(xian)夏播(bo)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)有(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)田(tian)率(lv)(lv)達(da)(da)到70%，平(ping)均(jun)被(bei)害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)25%，嚴(yan)重(zhong)地(di)(di)塊(kuai)百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)達(da)(da)到百(bai)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)以上(shang)(shang)，部(bu)(bu)分玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)幼(you)苗頂(ding)部(bu)(bu)已被(bei)咬斷。
2、氣象條件 據省氣象(xiang)(xiang)臺預報： 8月，全(quan)省降(jiang)水量在90～160毫(hao)米(mi)之間。與常(chang)年同期(qi)相比，全(quan)省大部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)降(jiang)水略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)，氣溫正(zheng)常(chang)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)高； 9月，全(quan)省降(jiang)水量在40～100毫(hao)米(mi)之間。與常(chang)年同期(qi)相比，大同市、朔州(zhou)市、晉城(cheng)市、運城(cheng)市大部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)降(jiang)水略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)，其它地區(qu)(qu)降(jiang)水略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)，其中(zhong)忻(xin)州(zhou)市南部(bu)、太原市、呂梁市偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)2成以上，氣溫中(zhong)部(bu)部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)高，其它地區(qu)(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)(pian)低。玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)生長中(zhong)后期(qi)的氣象(xiang)(xiang)條件總體有(you)利于玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發生，尤其對玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)螟、以粘(zhan)蟲(chong)、棉鈴蟲(chong)為(wei)主的夜蛾科害(hai)蟲(chong)以及玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)大小斑病(bing)(bing)發生有(you)利。另外，我省降(jiang)水時空分(fen)布不均，伏旱現象(xiang)(xiang)頻發，將有(you)利于玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)紅蜘蛛、玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)蚜蟲(chong)、土蝗等(deng)喜旱害(hai)蟲(chong)在局部(bu)地區(qu)(qu)重(zhong)發。
3、生態條件 近年來(lai)我(wo)省玉(yu)米(mi)播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和秸稈還田面積(ji)逐年增大，且(qie)連作現象普遍，各地(di)蟲菌源積(ji)累嚴重。加之我(wo)省玉(yu)米(mi)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)比較(jiao)單(dan)一，特別是先玉(yu)335品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面積(ji)集中(zhong)，密度高(gao)，整體抗逆性差(cha)，且(qie)高(gao)感大（小）斑病和玉(yu)米(mi)紅蜘蛛(zhu)(zhu)。另外，今年玉(yu)米(mi)播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)時(shi)間(jian)長，各地(di)玉(yu)米(mi)生育(yu)期(qi)極不整齊(qi)。特別是玉(yu)米(mi)紅蜘蛛(zhu)(zhu)發生盛(sheng)期(qi)正值玉(yu)米(mi)灌(guan)漿形成(cheng)產量的關鍵時(shi)期(qi)，這(zhe)些都將給(gei)我(wo)省玉(yu)米(mi)后(hou)期(qi)安全生長帶來(lai)嚴重隱患。
三、防治建議
玉(yu)米(mi)紅蜘(zhi)蛛是我(wo)省(sheng)玉(yu)米(mi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產中(zhong)暴發性(xing)(xing)重大害蟲，各(ge)地一定要(yao)加大田(tian)間(jian)(jian)監測力(li)度，密切關注發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)動態(tai)，及(ji)(ji)時(shi)發布預(yu)報，指(zhi)導田(tian)間(jian)(jian)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，在(zai)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)初期(qi)及(ji)(ji)時(shi)將玉(yu)米(mi)底部有螨(man)葉片(pian)摘除，裝入袋中(zhong)帶出田(tian)外深埋；當穗(sui)葉被害時(shi)，及(ji)(ji)時(shi)用1.8%阿(a)維(wei)菌素或(huo)(huo)15%噠螨(man)靈乳油或(huo)(huo)5%噻螨(man)酮乳油等(deng)藥劑噴霧(wu)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)或(huo)(huo)用煙霧(wu)機噴煙防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，重發區要(yao)及(ji)(ji)時(shi)組織專業防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)隊開展(zhan)統防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)統治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)二(er)、三代(dai)玉(yu)米(mi)螟、夜蛾科幼蟲可(ke)(ke)在(zai)雄穗(sui)打苞期(qi)，每(mei)畝用2.5%溴氰(qing)菊酯乳油1000倍(bei)液(ye)沾(zhan)滴花(hua)絲防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。玉(yu)米(mi)大（小）斑病(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區，要(yao)在(zai)病(bing)害發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)初期(qi)及(ji)(ji)時(shi)摘除下部病(bing)葉，并(bing)壟玉(yu)米(mi)植(zhi)株，加強通風，控制病(bing)害流行(xing)；玉(yu)米(mi)抽雄前后，田(tian)間(jian)(jian)病(bing)株率(lv)達70%，病(bing)葉率(lv)達20%時(shi)，每(mei)畝用50%多菌靈可(ke)(ke)濕性(xing)(xing)粉劑500倍(bei)液(ye)，70%甲基托布津可(ke)(ke)濕性(xing)(xing)粉劑500~800倍(bei)液(ye)，75%百菌清可(ke)(ke)濕性(xing)(xing)粉劑800倍(bei)液(ye)，進行(xing)噴藥防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，間(jian)(jian)隔7天，連噴2~3次。
