根(gen)據近期各(ge)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)站監(jian)測結(jie)果，結(jie)合水稻長勢及天氣(qi)趨勢綜合分析，預(yu)計今年我省第六（4）代(dai)稻飛虱總體發生程度4級(ji)(ji)(ji)；其中鄂南和江漢平原南部中稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)5級(ji)(ji)(ji),北部中稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)4級(ji)(ji)(ji)；晚稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)4級(ji)(ji)(ji)，局(ju)部5級(ji)(ji)(ji)。田間(jian)危(wei)害(hai)盛期在8月下旬至9月上旬。依據如下：
一、稻飛虱田間基數偏(pian)高(gao)，褐飛虱比例高(gao)
1. 稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)田間(jian)基(ji)數偏高(gao)(gao)。南(nan)部稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)田間(jian)發(fa)生量(liang)(liang)明顯重于(yu)北(bei)部稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)。8月6-10日各地普查，經防(fang)治(zhi)后全省平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)468.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部的(de)恩施(shi)、咸寧(ning)、荊州、黃(huang)岡等中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)500-800頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，達到防(fang)治(zhi)標(biao)準田塊(kuai)比例(li)在20-30%，漏(lou)防(fang)田塊(kuai)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)達到兩(liang)萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。建始(shi)縣(xian)調(diao)查，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)1600頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)3500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；來鳳縣(xian)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)1400頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)4000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；通城(cheng)縣(xian)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)1131頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)4133頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；咸安區(qu)(qu)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)1072頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)6730頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。而北(bei)部的(de)襄陽、隨州、孝感等地中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)300-500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，達到防(fang)治(zhi)標(biao)準田塊(kuai)比例(li)在10-20%，漏(lou)防(fang)田塊(kuai)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)超過(guo)萬(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。隨縣(xian)調(diao)查，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)356.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)690頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；谷城(cheng)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)145頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)1500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；鄖縣(xian)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)85頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)950頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。晚(wan)稻(dao)田蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)也較高(gao)(gao)。8月10-12日各地調(diao)查，晚(wan)稻(dao)稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)田間(jian)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)蔸(dou)(dou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)358.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，達標(biao)田塊(kuai)在5-10%。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)荊州市350頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)1500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；枝江110頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)450頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；黃(huang)岡300-500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)1500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)以上。
2. 褐(he)飛虱比例和(he)(he)短(duan)翅(chi)成蟲(chong)量高(gao)(gao)。受前期氣(qi)候影響，田間(jian)褐(he)飛虱比例升高(gao)(gao)。其中宜(yi)城(cheng)(cheng)（42.5%）、新洲（37%）、孝(xiao)感（40.5%）、天門（60%）、赤壁(bi)（73%）等(deng)地均(jun)超過30%。同時，田間(jian)短(duan)翅(chi)成蟲(chong)量較大(da)，8月10日(ri)，武穴、通(tong)城(cheng)(cheng)、鄖西(xi)等(deng)地調(diao)查(cha)田間(jian)百蔸稻飛虱短(duan)翅(chi)成蟲(chong)量，分別為25頭、34頭和(he)(he)8頭。
3. 稻飛(fei)虱田間蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)迅速。據各地(di)普(pu)查，經(jing)防治后，五(wu)（3）代(dai)稻飛(fei)虱田間蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量仍(reng)然(ran)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)較快(kuai)。黃岡(gang)平(ping)均(jun)百蔸蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)7月下旬的465.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)8月上旬571.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)4506頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)12000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；鄂州由(you)(you)(you)(you)160頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)480頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)850頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)3000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；潛江(jiang)由(you)(you)(you)(you)500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)530頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)1300頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)3600頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；襄(xiang)陽由(you)(you)(you)(you)220.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)597.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)5315頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)10000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；十堰(yan)由(you)(you)(you)(you)74.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)329.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量由(you)(you)(you)(you)700頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)到(dao)(dao)2000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。
二、水稻長(chang)勢有(you)利于稻飛(fei)虱發生
目前(qian)中稻(dao)(dao)大部處于(yu)(yu)孕穗至抽穗揚花期，晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)處于(yu)(yu)分(fen)蘗期。中稻(dao)(dao)營養(yang)條件豐富，田間蔭蔽度高，晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)葉(xie)片(pian)嫩綠(lv)，長勢旺，均有利于(yu)(yu)田間稻(dao)(dao)飛虱取食(shi)為害(hai)，利于(yu)(yu)其發(fa)生。
三、氣象條(tiao)件(jian)對兩遷(qian)害蟲發生有利
根據國家氣象中心分析，今年為厄爾尼諾(nuo)年，我(wo)省降(jiang)雨將會增多，易出(chu)現“盛(sheng)夏不熱，晚秋不涼”的氣候條件，對稻(dao)飛虱的發生非(fei)常有(you)利。
據(ju)武漢(han)區(qu)域氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)中心預測，8月份我省月平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)鄂(e)(e)西23～28℃，其他(ta)大(da)(da)部(bu)28～29℃，鄂(e)(e)西北(bei)略偏(pian)低，其他(ta)大(da)(da)部(bu)偏(pian)高0.1～0.5℃；月降水量江漢(han)平原90～120毫(hao)米(mi)，其他(ta)大(da)(da)部(bu)在(zai)120～160毫(hao)米(mi)，與(yu)常年相比，鄂(e)(e)西北(bei)偏(pian)多1～2成(cheng)，鄂(e)(e)東南接近常年，其他(ta)大(da)(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)少(shao)1～3成(cheng)。月極端(duan)最高氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)38～39℃。8月中下(xia)旬主要冷空氣(qi)(qi)及降水過程大(da)(da)致時段出現(xian)在(zai)10～12日(ri)，15～16日(ri)，24～25日(ri)。溫(wen)濕度有利于稻飛虱的(de)繁殖危(wei)害。
請各地一定要(yao)結合(he)當前(qian)稻飛(fei)虱發(fa)生情(qing)況和天氣變化，加強監測，分類指導防(fang)控(kong)工作。
