據全國(guo)農技中心(xin)組織(zhi)科研(yan)、教學和(he)推廣單位專家分析預(yu)測， 2015 年(nian)全國(guo)玉米主要(yao)病蟲(chong)害呈偏重(zhong)發生態(tai)勢(shi)，重(zhong)于上年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發生面(mian)積 12.0 億畝(mu)(mu)次。其(qi)中，蟲(chong)害預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發生 8.7 億畝(mu)(mu)次，病害預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發生 3.3 億畝(mu)(mu)次。東北、華(hua)北地(di)區(qu)以(yi)玉米螟、大斑病為(wei)害最重(zhong)，黃淮海地(di)區(qu)以(yi) 二點(dian)委夜(ye)蛾、 棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)、褐斑病 發生突(tu)出(chu)，蚜蟲(chong)、葉螨、小斑病在西北和(he)西南(nan)等(deng)地(di)發生普(pu)遍，不排(pai)除粘蟲(chong)在局部地(di)區(qu)出(chu)現高密度集中為(wei)害的可能。
一、發生趨勢
（一）玉米蟲害
玉(yu) 米(mi)(mi)螟 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 3. 5 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)次，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一(yi)代玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)其他大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 1.6 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)；二代玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)新疆南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和伊犁河(he)谷地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西(xi)南(nan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 1.2 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)；三(san)代玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)河(he)南(nan)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，黃淮(huai)海(hai)(hai)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 7000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 二、三(san)代粘蟲(chong) 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)南(nan)和北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)方其他大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，但不排(pai)除在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)局部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)方有(you)高密度集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)(hai)的可(ke)能，預計(ji)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) 6000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。 棉鈴蟲(chong) 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)黃淮(huai)海(hai)(hai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 7500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 二點(dian)委(wei)夜蛾(e) 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)黃淮(huai)海(hai)(hai)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、山東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、山西(xi)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約 2500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 蚜蟲(chong) 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全國發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji) 8500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 薊馬 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)黃淮(huai)海(hai)(hai)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji) 4500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 雙斑螢葉甲和葉螨 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)約 2500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong) 在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)東北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)局部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，黃淮(huai)海(hai)(hai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji) 1.15 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)。 土蝗、玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)耕葵粉(fen)蚧、草地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)螟、三(san)點(dian)斑葉蟬 等(deng)(deng)其他害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)可(ke)造成一(yi)定為(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)(hai)。
（二）玉米病害
大斑 病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 在 東北、華(hua)北偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部分(fen)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)地(di)區大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西南大部中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 9000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 小(xiao)斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 在黃(huang)淮海和西南地(di)區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 4500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 褐(he)斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 在黃(huang)淮海、東北中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 3000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 彎孢葉斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 在黃(huang)淮海中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 2600 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。 瘤黑粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 、 灰斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、頂腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、粗縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)和矮化病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing) 等(deng)在部分(fen)地(di)區會(hui)造(zao)成一定為害(hai)。
二、預測依據
（一）玉米病蟲(chong)基數總體維持較高水平
1 ．玉(yu)米(mi)螟 ：據各地冬前(qian)調查，平均(jun)百(bai)稈活蟲數(shu)，黑(hei)龍江、吉(ji)林、新(xin)疆為(wei) 44-75 頭，內(nei)蒙古、遼寧、山東、河南、江蘇(su)、安徽和湖北為(wei) 30-40 頭，天(tian)(tian)津、河北、山西、陜西為(wei) 10-20 頭，其(qi)中，吉(ji)林比前(qian) 3 年平均(jun)值(zhi)、 2013 年值(zhi)分別(bie)(bie)增加 10.5% 、 23.8% ，內(nei)蒙古比 2013 年增加 43.6% ，天(tian)(tian)津、湖北比近(jin) 3 年平均(jun)值(zhi)分別(bie)(bie)增加 17.7% 、 11.8% ，其(qi)他(ta)大部省份數(shu)量低于(yu)近(jin)幾年。
2 ．二點委夜(ye)蛾 ： 2014 年二點委夜(ye)蛾在黃淮海 8 個省（市） 35 個市（區）發生，河(he)北(bei)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)、河(he)南(nan)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西、江蘇、安徽 6 個省冬前(qian)查見越冬蟲源，蟲源面積為(wei) 859 萬畝，比 2013 年增加 5.3% 。平均每(mei)畝蟲口數(shu)量(liang)，山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)為(wei) 60 頭(tou)，安徽為(wei) 33.4 頭(tou)，河(he)南(nan)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西分別為(wei) 20 頭(tou)，河(he)北(bei)為(wei) 13.3 頭(tou)，其中(zhong)河(he)北(bei)邯鄲、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)東(dong)營、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西運城、安徽宿州、江蘇徐州等地最高在 453-1334 頭(tou)。
3 ．粘蟲(chong) ： 2014 年粘蟲(chong)在黃淮、華北(bei)等局(ju)部(bu)地(di)區發生較重外，其他大部(bu)地(di)區發生范圍和程度明(ming)顯小于(yu)或(huo)低(di)于(yu)前(qian)兩年。夏末秋初(chu)高(gao)空測報(bao)燈(deng)監測，在東(dong)北(bei)、華北(bei)、黃淮、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)、華南(nan)和西(xi)南(nan)地(di)區均誘到粘蟲(chong)成蟲(chong)。其中(zhong)，遼(liao)寧彰武(wu)、內蒙古通遼(liao)、北(bei)京(jing)延慶、天(tian)津寶坻、河北(bei)欒城、山西(xi)萬(wan)榮、山東(dong)萊(lai)州、上海奉(feng)賢、江(jiang)(jiang)西(xi)萬(wan)安(an)(an)、福建霞浦(pu)、廣東(dong)蕉(jiao)嶺累計(ji)誘蟲(chong)量在 400 頭以下；山東(dong)北(bei)隍(huang)城島 9 月份誘蟲(chong)量為(wei) 1987 頭，遠遠低(di)于(yu) 2013 年 2.85 萬(wan)頭和 2012 年 42.81 萬(wan)頭，為(wei) 2003 年以來的最低(di)值；四川(chuan)安(an)(an)縣 9 月份累計(ji)誘蟲(chong)量達 4.78 萬(wan)頭。
4 ．病(bing)害： 玉(yu)米葉部病(bing)害連年發(fa)生(sheng)，程度重(zhong)、范圍廣，各地(di)秸稈還田(tian)面積比率高(gao)，造成(cheng)田(tian)間菌源逐(zhu)年積累，菌源范圍廣、數量大。
（二）種植制度和(he)品種布(bu)局對(dui)病蟲(chong)害發生(sheng)有利
近幾年我國玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)植面積穩(wen)步擴大(da)(da)，目前已成為(wei)種(zhong)(zhong)植面積最大(da)(da)的作(zuo)(zuo)物，為(wei)病蟲害(hai)的發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)提供了(le)充足的寄主條件(jian)。東北、華北和(he)黃淮海主產區(qu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)連(lian)年種(zhong)(zhong)植，且多(duo)為(wei)大(da)(da)面積連(lian)作(zuo)(zuo)，各地普遍采取密植、免(mian)耕、秸(jie)(jie)稈還田、高(gao)肥(fei)水(shui)管理等措施，有利于(yu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)病蟲源積累(lei)和(he)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)為(wei)害(hai)。東北、華北主栽(zai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)大(da)(da)斑病、黃淮海主栽(zai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)褐斑病抗性(xing)普遍較差，大(da)(da)部地區(qu)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)對(dui)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)抗性(xing)差。但一些地區(qu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)秸(jie)(jie)稈粉碎(sui)可(ke)降低玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)越冬基數，清(qing)理播種(zhong)(zhong)行可(ke)破壞二點委(wei)夜蛾生(sheng)境，都是減(jian)輕為(wei)害(hai)程度的有效措施。
（三(san)）氣象條(tiao)件對病蟲害(hai)發生有利
據國家氣(qi)候中心(xin)監測和(he)(he)(he)(he)預測， 2014 年前冬(dong)，北(bei)方大部(bu)氣(qi)溫偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高，東北(bei)北(bei)部(bu)、華北(bei)和(he)(he)(he)(he)黃淮大部(bu)降水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)少(shao)，對玉米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)和(he)(he)(he)(he)二(er)點委夜蛾越冬(dong)有(you)利(li)(li)。 2015 年春季(ji)，除(chu)東北(bei)東部(bu)氣(qi)溫偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di)、降水明(ming)顯偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)多，對一(yi)代玉米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)發生有(you)不(bu)利(li)(li)影(ying)(ying)響外，東北(bei)、華北(bei)大部(bu)氣(qi)溫和(he)(he)(he)(he)降水正常(chang)，對玉米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)的化(hua)蛹和(he)(he)(he)(he)羽化(hua)無不(bu)利(li)(li)影(ying)(ying)響；江(jiang)淮和(he)(he)(he)(he)黃淮地區氣(qi)溫偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高、降水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)多，對一(yi)代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)和(he)(he)(he)(he)二(er)點委夜蛾種群增(zeng)長有(you)利(li)(li)，放大了為害玉米(mi)(mi)的蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基數(shu)。 2015 年夏季(ji)，如遇降水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)多天氣(qi)，將有(you)利(li)(li)于玉米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)、粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)和(he)(he)(he)(he)大斑病(bing)等喜濕(shi)性病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害的發生為害；如是偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)旱(han)年份，則對棉鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、雙斑螢葉甲、葉螨、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)等喜干性病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害的發生為害有(you)利(li)(li)。
（病蟲害測報處）
