全(quan)國農(nong)業技術推廣服務(wu)中心組織植保系統和(he)科(ke)研、教學單位(wei)專家分(fen)析預測， 2015 年(nian)小(xiao)麥(mai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)總體偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)，預計發生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 9.4 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，其中蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 5.1 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，病(bing)(bing)害(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 4.3 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。蚜蟲(chong)(chong)重(zhong)(zhong)發區域廣，赤霉病(bing)(bing)流(liu)行風險高，紋枯病(bing)(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)、條銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)、吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)、麥(mai)蜘蛛在部分(fen)地區偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)。
一、發生趨勢
（一）病(bing)害。赤霉病(bing) 流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)風險高(gao)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等及(ji)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)面積(ji)(ji)約 8500 萬畝，應預防面積(ji)(ji)超過(guo) 1 億(yi)畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，湖北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)漢(han)平(ping)(ping)原、安(an)徽和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇的沿淮(huai)(huai)(huai)及(ji)其(qi)以(yi)(yi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、浙江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、上(shang)(shang)海沿海麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)的威脅，長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)流(liu)(liu)(liu)域的其(qi)他(ta)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)伊犁河(he)谷有中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)的可能(neng)，華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 條銹病(bing) 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 2000 萬畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，四川西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu) “ 三江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)一河(he) ” 流(liu)(liu)(liu)域、甘(gan)肅(su)隴南(nan)(nan)(nan)及(ji)隴中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)晚熟麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、陜西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)沿江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)川道、湖北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)呈(cheng)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)態勢，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)、甘(gan)肅(su)大(da)部(bu)(bu)、陜西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)關中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、湖北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)漢(han)平(ping)(ping)原、河(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、寧(ning)夏南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、青海東(dong)部(bu)(bu)、新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)等地(di)(di)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度(du)(du)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)，河(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、安(an)徽沿淮(huai)(huai)(huai)及(ji)其(qi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)(he)膠東(dong)半島地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)可能(neng)。 紋枯(ku)病(bing) 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 1.4 億(yi)畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，湖北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)漢(han)平(ping)(ping)原、安(an)徽和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)蘇的沿淮(huai)(huai)(huai)和(he)(he)(he)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)(he)河(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)高(gao)產麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)、黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)的其(qi)他(ta)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)輕及(ji)以(yi)(yi)下(xia)程度(du)(du)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 白(bai)粉病(bing) 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 8500 萬畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，河(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)沿黃(huang)(huang)稻茬(cha)麥(mai)和(he)(he)(he)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)高(gao)產麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)東(dong)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)的其(qi)他(ta)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)、長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)和(he)(he)(he)新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 葉銹病(bing)、根腐病(bing) 在黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)(huai)和(he)(he)(he)華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)上(shang)(shang)升為害態勢， 葉枯(ku)病(bing)、根腐病(bing)、孢囊線蟲(chong)病(bing)、全蝕病(bing)、黑(hei)穗病(bing)、病(bing)毒病(bing) 在部(bu)(bu)分麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)會造成一定為害。
（二）蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai) 。 蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong) 發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 2.4 億畝次；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，河(he)(he)北(bei)、山(shan)(shan)東(dong)(dong)大發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)和黃(huang)(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)的其(qi)他麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)、江(jiang)淮(huai)(huai)、長江(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游、四川、寧(ning)夏等(deng)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)北(bei)的其(qi)他麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)(chong) 發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 3000 萬畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，河(he)(he)北(bei)平(ping)原麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，陜西(xi)關中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)、河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)部(bu)、天(tian)津北(bei)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)、黃(huang)(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)其(qi)他麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)北(bei)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蜘(zhi)蛛 發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 1.0 億畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)西(xi)部(bu)、山(shan)(shan)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)、山(shan)(shan)東(dong)(dong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)、河(he)(he)北(bei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)的山(shan)(shan)地(di)旱麥(mai)(mai)(mai)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)、黃(huang)(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)、西(xi)北(bei)大部(bu)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，江(jiang)淮(huai)(huai)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)大部(bu)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)偏輕(qing)(qing)至輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。金(jin)(jin)針蟲(chong)(chong)、蠐螬、螻蛄等(deng) 地(di)下(xia)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong) 發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 7000 萬畝；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、山(shan)(shan)西(xi)、天(tian)津、甘肅、寧(ning)夏中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)、黃(huang)(huang)(huang)淮(huai)(huai)、西(xi)北(bei)其(qi)他麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 一代粘蟲(chong)(chong)、灰飛虱、麥(mai)(mai)(mai)葉蜂、土蝗、麥(mai)(mai)(mai)莖蜂 在部(bu)分(fen)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)會造成一定為害(hai)； 白眉野草螟、瓦矛夜(ye)蛾、蘋毛麗(li)金(jin)(jin)龜 等(deng)新發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)呈上升為害(hai)趨(qu)勢。
二、預測依據
（一(yi)）秋(qiu)苗(miao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)基(ji)數偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di)，蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、麥蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)基(ji)數偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)。條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing) 秋(qiu)苗(miao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)小(xiao)、總體病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)(qing)(qing)輕(qing)。甘肅(su)、寧(ning)夏、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)等西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)主(zhu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 251 萬畝，是 2001 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來最小(xiao)的一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。其(qi)(qi)中，甘肅(su)隴南(nan)、隴東、隴中、寧(ning)夏南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)關(guan)中發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)程(cheng)度(du)多(duo)(duo)以(yi)單片病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)至小(xiao)型發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中心(xin)為主(zhu)，各地(di)(di)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田(tian)率(lv)為 20%-40% ，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv)多(duo)(duo)在 0.1% 以(yi)下(xia)(xia)，僅平(ping)涼市(shi)莊(zhuang)浪縣、定西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)市(shi)臨洮縣、甘南(nan)州(zhou)臨潭(tan)縣、寧(ning)夏原州(zhou)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、彭陽縣部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)田(tian)塊發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)較(jiao)重。青海(hai)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)樂都、尖扎、化(hua)隆(long)、貴德、循化(hua) 5 縣查見零(ling)星(xing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)和(he)較(jiao)小(xiao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中心(xin)，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv) 0.5%-2.0% ，是近(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)來發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)重的一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。新疆伊犁、阿克(ke)蘇(su) 2 州(zhou)（地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)）的 2 個(ge)(ge)縣零(ling)星(xing)見病(bing)(bing)(bing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 300 畝，病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)(qing)(qing)是近(jin) 5 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)最輕(qing)的一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。截至 2015 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian) 1 月 15 日， 冬(dong)(dong)繁(fan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)四川、云(yun)南(nan)、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi) 4 省 57 個(ge)(ge)縣（市(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)）見病(bing)(bing)(bing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 5.2 萬畝；冬(dong)(dong)繁(fan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)(qing)(qing)重于(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，接近(jin)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的 2011 、 2012 、 2014 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，輕(qing)于(yu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的 2010 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，遠遠輕(qing)于(yu)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的 2009 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。 白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing) 秋(qiu)苗(miao)總體病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)(qing)(qing)輕(qing)于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。甘肅(su)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、寧(ning)夏等西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)為普(pu)遍(bian)(bian)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 260 萬畝，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv) 0.5% ；山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv) 2.5% ，比 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 67% 、 150% ；河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東膠東半島(dao)等地(di)(di)零(ling)星(xing)見病(bing)(bing)(bing)，華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、黃淮(huai)、江淮(huai)和(he)長江流域麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)冬(dong)(dong)前未(wei)見病(bing)(bing)(bing)。 紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing) 秋(qiu)苗(miao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)(qing)(qing)輕(qing)于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)重于(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)普(pu)遍(bian)(bian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 810 萬畝；平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株率(lv)，山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、安(an)徽(hui)、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、江蘇(su)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 3.6% 、 2.9% 、 1.4% 、 1.2% 、 0.9% 、 0.5% ，大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)低(di)于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，與(yu)(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、安(an)徽(hui)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 7% 、 56% ，河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di) 37% 、 57% ，山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東持平(ping)，江蘇(su) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)未(wei)見病(bing)(bing)(bing)。 蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong) 秋(qiu)苗(miao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)接近(jin)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、高(gao)(gao)于(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。江淮(huai)、黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)普(pu)遍(bian)(bian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 1550 萬畝；平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)株蚜(ya)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、安(an)徽(hui)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東、北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、寧(ning)夏分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 7.4 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 6.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 5.1 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 5.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 4.6 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 4.1 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 2.7 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.9 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，除北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di) 53% 、 34% 以(yi)外(wai)，其(qi)(qi)他(ta)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)接近(jin)；與(yu)(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，除北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di) 68% 以(yi)外(wai)，其(qi)(qi)他(ta)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)均(jun)(jun)(jun)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 50%-200% 。 麥蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu) 秋(qiu)苗(miao)螨量(liang)(liang)(liang)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)。江淮(huai)、黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)普(pu)遍(bian)(bian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji) 1100 萬畝；平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)每尺單行蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，安(an)徽(hui)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)東、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、寧(ning)夏分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 63.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 19.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 17.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 10.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 7.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 4.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.8 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，除寧(ning)夏偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di) 10% 以(yi)外(wai)，其(qi)(qi)他(ta)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 6%-92% 。 吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong) 蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口密度(du)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)明(ming)顯下(xia)(xia)降。秋(qiu)季淘(tao)土調查平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)每小(xiao)方(fang)(fang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，天津、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、寧(ning)夏、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 7.9 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 2.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 2.0 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.6 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 0.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di) 30%-90% 。但仍有部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)局部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)田(tian)塊蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口密度(du)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)，最高(gao)(gao)每小(xiao)方(fang)(fang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)蒲城(cheng)、華(hua)陰、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)灤縣、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)安(an)陽、鶴(he)壁、南(nan)陽分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 237 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 86 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 182 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 108 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 96 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 78 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。 地(di)(di)下(xia)(xia)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong) 蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口密度(du)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)較(jiao)低(di)。平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)每方(fang)(fang)混合蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，陜(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)、河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為 4.5 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 3.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 2.9 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.6 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、 1.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，河(he)(he)(he)南(nan)、北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 12% 、 23% ，其(qi)(qi)他(ta)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)均(jun)(jun)(jun)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di)。秋(qiu)苗(miao)被害(hai)株率(lv)，黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)多(duo)(duo)為 0.5%-2% ，與(yu)(yu) 2013 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相比，河(he)(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、山(shan)(shan)(shan)(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao) 89% 、 5% ，其(qi)(qi)他(ta)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)均(jun)(jun)(jun)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)低(di)。
（二）小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)結(jie)構和(he)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)布局有(you)利于病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲害(hai)發生。 全國冬(dong)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積 3.35 億畝，越(yue)冬(dong)期苗(miao)情是(shi)(shi)近幾年(nian)較(jiao)(jiao)好的(de)(de)一年(nian)，基本實現了(le)壯苗(miao)越(yue)冬(dong)，且河(he)南、河(he)北(bei)(bei)、山東、山西(xi)等(deng)主(zhu)(zhu)產麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有(you)過量播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、群體偏(pian)大現象，近期個別田塊旺長趨(qu)勢(shi)明顯(xian)(xian)，對多種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲害(hai)發生有(you)利。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)布局沒有(you)明顯(xian)(xian)變化，抗(kang)(kang)(kang)性(xing)(xing)(xing)水平仍然較(jiao)(jiao)低。除甘肅、四川、山東有(you)一定(ding)比例的(de)(de)條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)性(xing)(xing)(xing)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)外(wai)，大部(bu)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)銹性(xing)(xing)(xing)較(jiao)(jiao)差，特別是(shi)(shi)自 2010 年(nian)以來(lai)，條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)菌(jun) “ 貴農 22” 新(xin)致病(bing)(bing)(bing)類群的(de)(de)出現和(he)發展，加(jia)快了(le)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)性(xing)(xing)(xing)喪失速(su)度；除鄂麥(mai)(mai)(mai)、揚(yang)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)、寧麥(mai)(mai)(mai)系列部(bu)分品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)對赤霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)有(you)一定(ding)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)性(xing)(xing)(xing)外(wai)，長江中下游、江淮(huai)、黃(huang)淮(huai)和(he)華北(bei)(bei)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)栽品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)均不(bu)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)赤霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)，另外(wai)，北(bei)(bei)方高產品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)跨區(qu)(qu)(qu)引種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)到江淮(huai)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，加(jia)大了(le)赤霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)(bing)流行的(de)(de)風險；除山東白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)性(xing)(xing)(xing)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積較(jiao)(jiao)大外(wai)，江淮(huai)、黃(huang)淮(huai)和(he)華北(bei)(bei)主(zhu)(zhu)產麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)(zhu)栽品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)對白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蚜蟲等(deng)主(zhu)(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲害(hai)的(de)(de)抗(kang)(kang)(kang)性(xing)(xing)(xing)普(pu)遍(bian)較(jiao)(jiao)差。
（三）氣(qi)象條件對大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)蟲(chong)害和(he)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)病害發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)有(you)利。 據(ju)國(guo)家氣(qi)候中(zhong)(zhong)心預(yu)測， 2015 年 1-2 月(yue)，長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)和(he)北(bei)方(fang)冬麥(mai)區(qu)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)接(jie)近(jin)常年，對病蟲(chong)害的(de)越冬無明顯不利影響；西南(nan)冬麥(mai)區(qu)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)偏(pian)高、南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)降(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)(shui)偏(pian)少，有(you)利于蚜蟲(chong)等(deng)蟲(chong)害的(de)冬季(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。 2015 年春季(ji)（ 3-5 月(yue)份），全(quan)國(guo)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)接(jie)近(jin)常年同(tong)期(qi)或(huo)偏(pian)高，特別是河(he)南(nan)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、山東(dong)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、山西中(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、河(he)北(bei)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)黃(huang)淮(huai)和(he)華北(bei)主產(chan)麥(mai)區(qu)以(yi)及(ji)西南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)(wen)顯著(zhu)偏(pian)高，有(you)利于蚜蟲(chong)、麥(mai)蜘蛛等(deng)蟲(chong)害的(de)種(zhong)群上(shang)升和(he)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)為害；全(quan)國(guo)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)麥(mai)區(qu)降(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)(shui)接(jie)近(jin)常年同(tong)期(qi)或(huo)偏(pian)多(duo)(duo)，特別是長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)、江(jiang)(jiang)淮(huai)、黃(huang)淮(huai)麥(mai)區(qu)降(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)(shui)偏(pian)多(duo)(duo) 1-2 成，且湖北(bei)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、河(he)南(nan)東(dong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、安徽、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇、上(shang)海、浙江(jiang)(jiang)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)多(duo)(duo) 2 ～ 5 成，對赤(chi)(chi)霉(mei)病、條銹病、紋枯病、白粉病等(deng)病害發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)發(fa)展十分有(you)利，如小麥(mai)抽穗揚花期(qi)遇 2 天以(yi)上(shang)陰雨天氣(qi)，會造成赤(chi)(chi)霉(mei)病暴發(fa)流行 。
（病蟲害測報處）
