近(jin)日(ri)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)農(nong)技中(zhong)心組織植保(bao)部門和(he)科研單位專家(jia)對 2015 年(nian)農(nong)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)害發生情況進行會商分(fen)析，認(ren)為(wei) 2015 年(nian) 全(quan)(quan)國(guo)農(nong)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)害總體呈(cheng) 中(zhong)等偏重發生趨勢(shi) ，東(dong)北(bei)大部、華(hua)北(bei)北(bei)部、海(hai)南、云南部分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)、廣東(dong)、廣西和(he)新疆部分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)呈(cheng) 重發生態勢(shi)。 2015 年(nian)預(yu)計發生面積 4.4 億畝(mu)次，比去年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長 2000 萬畝(mu)次，其中(zhong)重發面積（鼠(shu)密度(du)超過 8% ）預(yu)計在(zai) 6800 萬畝(mu)，比去年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加 1400 萬畝(mu)。從全(quan)(quan)國(guo)鼠(shu)情監(jian)測數據分(fen)析，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)農(nong)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)害已經進入種群高發期，發生特點 呈(cheng)現出(chu)局部高發、逐步加重的趨勢(shi)，種群密度(du)高發區(qu)(qu)集中(zhong)在(zai)一些山區(qu)(qu)、半山區(qu)(qu)等貧困地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，以(yi)及部分(fen)湖區(qu)(qu)、庫區(qu)(qu)和(he)農(nong)林、農(nong)牧交錯區(qu)(qu)。
一、發生趨勢
（一）農田鼠害
東(dong)北地(di)區(qu)(qu)： 偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其中：黑龍江大(da)部偏重(zhong)至大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 4 － 5 級(ji)(ji)），吉(ji)林東(dong)部大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 5 級(ji)(ji)），其他(ta)地(di)區(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) (4 級(ji)(ji) ) 、遼寧中等至偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 3 － 4 級(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積黑龍江 5000 萬(wan)(wan)畝次(ci)、吉(ji)林 3000 萬(wan)(wan)畝次(ci)、遼寧 1400 萬(wan)(wan)畝次(ci)。
華北(bei)地區： 北(bei)部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其(qi)他地區偏(pian)輕至中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其(qi)中(zhong)：北(bei)京、天津、山(shan)(shan)西南(nan)部、河北(bei)南(nan)部偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 1 － 2 級(ji)），河北(bei)北(bei)部中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 3 級(ji)），東部中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 4 級(ji)）；山(shan)(shan)西丘陵山(shan)(shan)區中(zhong)華鼢鼠偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng) (4 級(ji) ) ，內蒙古大部中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 3 － 4 級(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積北(bei)京 200 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、天津 200 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、河北(bei) 2123 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、山(shan)(shan)西 1500 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、內蒙 2100 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
西(xi)北(bei)地(di)區(qu)： 局(ju)部偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，大(da)部中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，其中(zhong)：甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)、寧(ning)夏大(da)部偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)（ 2 級(ji)(ji)(ji)），甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)、寧(ning)夏、青海等(deng)(deng)地(di)中(zhong)華鼢鼠偏重至大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)（ 4 － 5 級(ji)(ji)(ji)），青海、新(xin)(xin)疆（含(han)兵(bing)團(tuan)）、陜(shan)西(xi)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至偏重發(fa)生(sheng)（ 3 － 4 級(ji)(ji)(ji)）、新(xin)(xin)疆喀什、阿(a)克蘇(su)、阿(a)勒泰(tai)市、博樂市、塔城市等(deng)(deng)地(di)農牧交錯區(qu)以及兵(bing)團(tuan)十(shi)師(shi)阿(a)爾(er)泰(tai)墾區(qu)、五師(shi) 84 團(tuan)、 88 團(tuan)、四師(shi)昭蘇(su)、新(xin)(xin)源、伊寧(ning)、九師(shi)塔城等(deng)(deng)退(tui)耕還林地(di)、玉(yu)米播種(zhong)區(qu)域及糧食(shi)種(zhong)植區(qu)重發(fa)生(sheng)（ 5 級(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預(yu)計發(fa)生(sheng)面積甘(gan)(gan)肅(su) 1200 萬(wan)畝次(ci)、寧(ning)夏 200 萬(wan)畝次(ci)、青海 450 萬(wan)畝次(ci)、新(xin)(xin)疆（含(han)兵(bing)團(tuan)） 1200 萬(wan)畝次(ci)、陜(shan)西(xi) 1000 萬(wan)畝次(ci)。
華(hua)東(dong)地(di)區： 局部中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，大部偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其中(zhong)(zhong)：上海、山東(dong)、江蘇(su)、安徽偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 1 － 2 級），江西、福建中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 3 級），浙江偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng) (4 級 ) ，江西環鄱陽湖地(di)區及贛中(zhong)(zhong)部分(fen)(fen)山區以及福建部分(fen)(fen)地(di)區偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（ 4 級），預計(ji)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積上海 150 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)、山東(dong) 2800 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)、江蘇(su) 1370 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)、安徽 960 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)、江西 2100 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)、浙江 1000 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)、福建 990 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
華中(zhong)地區： 偏(pian)輕發(fa)生，局部偏(pian)重發(fa)生，其中(zhong)：湖(hu)北(bei)、河南(nan)中(zhong)等偏(pian)輕發(fa)生（ 2 級），其中(zhong)河南(nan)民權、蘭考(kao)縣棕色田鼠中(zhong)等偏(pian)重發(fa)生 (4 級 ) ，湖(hu)南(nan)中(zhong)等至偏(pian)重發(fa)生（ 3 － 4 級），預計發(fa)生面積湖(hu)北(bei) 1200 萬(wan)畝次、河南(nan) 1450 萬(wan)畝次、湖(hu)南(nan) 2550 萬(wan)畝次。
華南(nan)地區(qu)： 偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)，其中：廣(guang)(guang)東大(da)部(bu)(bu)、廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)(xi)大(da)部(bu)(bu)中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)（ 3 － 4 級(ji)(ji)）、海南(nan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)（ 5 級(ji)(ji)）、廣(guang)(guang)東西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)及(ji)珠三角地區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重至大(da)發(fa)生(sheng)（ 4 － 5 級(ji)(ji)）、廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)(xi)東北和西(xi)(xi)北部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)重發(fa)生(sheng)（ 5 級(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)面積廣(guang)(guang)東 2000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)(xi) 2000 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、海南(nan) 280 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
西南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)區： 中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其中(zhong)：重(zhong)慶中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 2 級(ji)），四川、貴(gui)州(zhou)(zhou)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 3 級(ji)），川西高(gao)原(yuan)農牧交錯區偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 4 級(ji)），貴(gui)州(zhou)(zhou)部(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)區偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 4 級(ji)），云南(nan)、西藏(zang)大部(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 3 － 4 級(ji)）， 云南(nan)部(bu)分地(di)(di)(di)區大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 5 級(ji)）。預計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積 云南(nan) 1200 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、貴(gui)州(zhou)(zhou) 800 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、重(zhong)慶 850 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、四川 2800 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)、西藏(zang) 90 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
（二）農戶住宅區鼠害
預計全國農戶住宅區(qu)鼠害(hai)總體(ti)呈中(zhong)等偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨勢。東北大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、華(hua)(hua)(hua)南大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、華(hua)(hua)(hua)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)大(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 5 級），內蒙(meng)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)藏、新疆、云南偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 4 級），華(hua)(hua)(hua)北、華(hua)(hua)(hua)東、華(hua)(hua)(hua)中(zhong)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)北大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)南大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)為中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（ 3 級）。湖北、重(zhong)慶、甘(gan)肅、青海、寧夏偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) (2 級 ) 。預計全年發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 1.41 億戶次，比去年增長 800 萬戶次，重(zhong)發(fa)（鼠密度超(chao)過(guo) 5% ） 8000 萬戶。
（三）鼠傳疾(ji)病(bing)發(fa)生情況
2014 年前(qian) 10 個月(yue)全(quan)國發(fa)生(sheng)鼠(shu)疫 3 例(li)(li)、出(chu)血熱 8996 例(li)(li)、鉤端螺旋體病 281 例(li)(li)。特別(bie)是(shi)鼠(shu)疫是(shi)繼 2010 年發(fa)生(sheng)后再次(ci)出(chu)現發(fa)病超過 1 例(li)(li)的(de)情(qing)況，原因可能與農村(cun)(cun)地區鼠(shu)害進入(ru)種群高(gao)發(fa)期有直接關系。隨(sui)著大部分地區鼠(shu)密(mi)度的(de)回升，農村(cun)(cun)地區已(yi)經(jing)進入(ru)鼠(shu)傳疾病高(gao)發(fa)期，應高(gao)度重視。
二、預報依據
（一）北方大部分(fen)地區秋季鼠密度(du)上升明顯
據全國 140 個農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害監測點監測結果分析， 2014 年東北大部分地區(qu)由于(yu)未組織(zhi)開(kai)展統一滅鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)工作，導致秋季鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)呈明顯上升趨勢。黑龍江省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 5 － 23% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高達(da)(da)(da) 23% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高達(da)(da)(da) 58% ，全省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)超 10% 的縣(xian)(xian)(xian)有 12 個，主要集中(zhong)在黑河(he)、大慶、齊齊哈爾(er)、哈爾(er)濱地區(qu)。吉林(lin)省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 4 － 18% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高 18% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高 26% 。遼寧省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da) 3 － 9% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高達(da)(da)(da) 9% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高達(da)(da)(da) 15% 。河(he)北省(sheng)豐寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 7.5% ，康保(bao)縣(xian)(xian)(xian) 8% 。山西省(sheng)臨縣(xian)(xian)(xian)中(zhong)華(hua)鼢(fen)(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da) 5 只(zhi)(zhi) / 公頃(qing)。內(nei)蒙古清水河(he)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)中(zhong)華(hua)鼢(fen)(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da) 2.6 個 / 公頃(qing)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)戶(hu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da) 33% 。青海省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)平(ping)(ping)均(jun) 3.84 ％、最(zui)(zui)(zui)高鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 24.5 ％，中(zhong)華(hua)鼢(fen)(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)平(ping)(ping)均(jun) 7.2 只(zhi)(zhi) / 公頃(qing)、最(zui)(zui)(zui)高達(da)(da)(da) 81 只(zhi)(zhi) / 公頃(qing)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 0.11 － 13.31% ，平(ping)(ping)均(jun) 2.63% ，湟源縣(xian)(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)(da)(da) 9% ，中(zhong)華(hua)鼢(fen)(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 31 只(zhi)(zhi) / 公頃(qing)。新疆博樂市農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 11.4% ，疏附縣(xian)(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 8% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)戶(hu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 17% 。
此外(wai)，青海省共(gong)(gong)(gong)設立 43 個(ge)(ge) TBS 圍(wei)欄（每個(ge)(ge) 200 平方米(mi)(mi)(mi)）監(jian)測(ce)(ce)鼠(shu)害(hai)， 5 個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)(gong)捕到 5686 只(zhi)老(lao)(lao)鼠(shu)；吉林公(gong)主嶺地(di)(di)區采用 800 平方米(mi)(mi)(mi) TBS 圍(wei)欄監(jian)測(ce)(ce)在玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)田(tian) 5 個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)(gong)捕到 207 只(zhi)老(lao)(lao)鼠(shu)；內蒙古正藍旗(qi)采用 800 平方米(mi)(mi)(mi) TBS 圍(wei)欄監(jian)測(ce)(ce)在莜麥田(tian) 3 個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)(gong)捕到 148 只(zhi)老(lao)(lao)鼠(shu)；新疆(jiang)博樂(le)市采用 800 平方米(mi)(mi)(mi) TBS 圍(wei)欄監(jian)測(ce)(ce) 5 個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)(gong)捕到 187 只(zhi)老(lao)(lao)鼠(shu)。上述數據均表明(ming)北方大部分地(di)(di)區鼠(shu)密度呈明(ming)顯上升趨勢。
（二）南方局部地區(qu)鼠密度出現暴(bao)發性(xing)增長(chang)
進入秋(qiu)冬季以來，南方大部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)較平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)穩，局部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)出(chu)現(xian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)種(zhong)群，已經對蔬(shu)(shu)菜等農(nong)(nong)(nong)作物造成危害(hai)。江(jiang)西省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)秋(qiu)季農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 2 － 8% ，泰和縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao) 7.33% 。山東(dong)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 1.18% ，曹(cao)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 4.0% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)戶平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 2% ，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao) 5.3 ％，博興縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian) 10 月(yue)份小麥田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da) 18.5% ，出(chu)現(xian)暴(bao)發性(xing)(xing)增長(chang)。江(jiang)蘇省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均 3.3% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 4.1% ，邳州市(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao) 5.67% 。安徽省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 1 － 3.1% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)在 1.5 － 6% 。浙江(jiang)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)桐廬縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 4.1% ，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 6.9% 。福建(jian)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)順昌縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du) 10.5% ，仙游縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian) 8.97% 。湖北平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 0.3 － 7% ，羅(luo)田(tian)(tian)(tian) 縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)7%。河南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為1.24%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)戶平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)3.94%。湖南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)4.1%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)10.1%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)3.7%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)6.7%，辰(chen)溪(xi)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)12月(yue)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)7.35%，洞庭湖區(qu)秋(qiu)冬季鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)20.8%。 廣西 農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在5%-12% ， 農(nong)(nong)(nong)戶鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在4%-10% 。廣東(dong)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian) 鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在3.2%-10.5% ，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)24.5%；海(hai)南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在10-20%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在3%-15%，臨高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)、三亞等局部(bu)(bu)地鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)出(chu)現(xian)暴(bao)發性(xing)(xing)增長(chang)。 四川省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)江(jiang)安縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da) 12% ，出(chu)現(xian)暴(bao)發性(xing)(xing)增長(chang)。貴州省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)在 2 － 8% ，余慶縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)水稻田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為 7.5% ，都勻市(shi)旱(han)田(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為 6% 。云南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)雙柏縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)山區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da) 32.46% ，南澗縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)山區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da) 24.36% ，澄江(jiang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)山區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da) 16.32% ，晉寧縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian) 12 月(yue)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da) 35% ，出(chu)現(xian)暴(bao)發性(xing)(xing)增長(chang)，導致部(bu)(bu)分(fen)蔬(shu)(shu)菜田(tian)(tian)(tian)絕收。
此外，廣西(xi)富川縣(xian)采(cai)用(yong) 800 平方米 TBS 圍(wei)欄監測(ce) 4 個(ge)月共捕到 302 只老(lao)鼠。貴州省甕安縣(xian)采(cai)用(yong) 800 平方米 TBS 圍(wei)欄監測(ce) 4 個(ge)月共捕到 275 只，比(bi) 2013 年增加 176 只。息烽縣(xian)采(cai)用(yong) 800 平方米 TBS 圍(wei)欄監測(ce) 5 個(ge)月共捕到 120 只老(lao)鼠。上述數據均表明南方大(da)部分(fen)地區鼠密度(du)比(bi)去年略有(you)上升，部分(fen)地區鼠密度(du)出現(xian)暴發性增長。
三、主要優勢鼠種和春季(ji)防治時(shi)期(qi)
東北地區：以褐家鼠、黑線(xian)姬鼠、黑線(xian)倉鼠、大倉鼠為主要優勢鼠種(zhong)，春(chun)季防治(zhi)時期為 4 月下旬至 5 月中(zhong)旬春(chun)播(bo)前。
華北地區：以(yi)褐家鼠(shu)(shu)、達烏爾黃鼠(shu)(shu)、長(chang)爪(zhua)沙鼠(shu)(shu)、黑線倉鼠(shu)(shu)、中華鼢(fen)鼠(shu)(shu)為主要(yao)優勢(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)種，春季防治時(shi)期為 4 月上(shang)(shang)旬至 5 月上(shang)(shang)旬。
西北地區：以(yi)褐(he)家(jia)鼠(shu)、中(zhong)華鼢(fen)鼠(shu)、小家(jia)鼠(shu)、灰倉鼠(shu)為主要(yao)優勢(shi)鼠(shu)種，春(chun)季防治時期為 4 月(yue)中(zhong)旬至 5 月(yue)中(zhong)旬。
華東地(di)區：以黑線(xian)姬鼠、黃胸鼠、黃毛鼠為主要優勢鼠種，春(chun)季防(fang)治時期(qi)為 3 月(yue)中旬(xun)至 4 月(yue)中旬(xun)。
華中地區：以(yi)黃毛鼠(shu)、黃胸鼠(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)、黑線姬(ji)鼠(shu)、棕(zong)色田(tian)鼠(shu)為(wei)主要優勢鼠(shu)種，春季防治時期為(wei) 3 月上旬至 4 月中旬。
華南地區：以黃(huang)毛鼠、板齒鼠、黃(huang)胸鼠、褐(he)家(jia)鼠、小(xiao)家(jia)鼠為(wei)主要優(you)勢(shi)鼠種，春季(ji)防治時期為(wei) 2 月下(xia)旬(xun)至 4 月上旬(xun)。
西南地區：以黑線姬鼠(shu)、黃胸(xiong)鼠(shu)、短尾 鼩 、大足鼠(shu)等為(wei)主(zhu)要優(you)勢鼠(shu)種，春(chun)季防治(zhi)時(shi)期(qi)為(wei) 3 月(yue)下旬至 4 月(yue)下旬。
預計海(hai)南(nan)、廣西(xi)大(da)部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu) 1 月(yue)中旬至 2 月(yue)底即出(chu)現首次(ci)為(wei)害(hai)高(gao)峰(feng)期，南(nan)方(fang)(fang)大(da)部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu) 4 月(yue)下(xia)旬為(wei)嚴重(zhong)為(wei)害(hai)期，北(bei)方(fang)(fang)地(di)區(qu)(qu) 5 月(yue)中旬至 6 月(yue)底為(wei)嚴重(zhong)為(wei)害(hai)期。南(nan)方(fang)(fang)冬季蔬(shu)菜生產以及北(bei)方(fang)(fang)部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)春播(bo)(bo)將(jiang)受到害(hai)鼠的(de)影響，特別是水稻育秧田、冬季蔬(shu)菜田和北(bei)方(fang)(fang)春播(bo)(bo)玉米、大(da)豆田等將(jiang)受害(hai)較重(zhong)。
（農藥與藥械處）
