一、總趨勢
根據全(quan)省(sheng)各地(di)冬前農作物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)越冬基數調查，結(jie)合近年(nian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)態勢，并組織有關專家會商分析，預(yu)計2015年(nian)我省(sheng)農作物(wu)主要病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)呈中(zhong)等、局部偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)程度接(jie)近2014年(nian)。全(quan)省(sheng)農作物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)草鼠發(fa)生(sheng)面積1.75億畝次(ci)以上(shang)。偏重發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)有：南部的(de)小麥(mai)紅蜘(zhi)蛛、棉(mian)盲(mang)蝽(chun)、局部的(de)小麥(mai)穗蚜和白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing);玉米(mi)種植區沿河(he)低(di)洼下濕地(di)的(de)小地(di)老(lao)虎、太(tai)(tai)原以北的(de)玉米(mi)葉螨(man)、晉中(zhong)東山(shan)、太(tai)(tai)行山(shan)等冷涼山(shan)區和忻定盆地(di)的(de)玉米(mi)大斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、馬鈴薯(shu)晚(wan)疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋果炭疽(ju)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋果褐斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)保護地(di)瓜菜霜(shuang)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)和白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、番茄病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等。
二、主要農作物病蟲發生趨勢
1、小麥(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害 總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)麥(mai)蜘(zhi)蛛在南(nan)部(bu)麥(mai)區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，運城、晉城麥(mai)區旱(han)垣、向(xiang)陽(yang)坡地(di)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);小麥(mai)穗(sui)蚜中(zhong)等(deng)、局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);小麥(mai)吸漿蟲(chong)(chong)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);地(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);白粉病(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)，局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)230萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);紋枯病(bing)在南(nan)部(bu)高水(shui)肥麥(mai)田偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);葉(xie)銹(xiu)病(bing)偏(pian)輕至(zhi)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);腥黑穗(sui)病(bing)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)60萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);小麥(mai)條銹(xiu)病(bing)在運城南(nan)部(bu)麥(mai)區偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)20萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
2、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)病蟲(chong)(chong)害 總(zong)體中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)一代玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，晉(jin)南春玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)田(tian)以及(ji)甜糯玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)集中(zhong)種植區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)300萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu);玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)薊(ji)馬在運城、臨汾玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)苗期(qi)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)220萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu);玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)葉螨(man)中(zhong)等(deng)，中(zhong)、北(bei)部(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)500萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，為害盛(sheng)期(qi)7月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)旬至(zhi)8月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)旬;雙斑(ban)螢葉甲中(zhong)等(deng)，北(bei)部(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，全(quan)省發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)450萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu);以小地(di)老(lao)虎、蠐螬(cao)、金針(zhen)蟲(chong)(chong)為主的地(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)在各玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)種植區的沿河下(xia)濕地(di)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)1000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu);玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)(小)斑(ban)病在忻(xin)定盆地(di)、大(da)同盆地(di)、晉(jin)中(zhong)東山以及(ji)太行山等(deng)冷涼山區偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，全(quan)省發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)700萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)左(zuo)右;玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)絲黑穗病在大(da)同、太原、呂(lv)梁(liang)、長治等(deng)地(di)偏輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)早(zao)播重茬低洼下(xia)濕地(di)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)165萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。
3、暴發(fa)(fa)性病(bing)蟲害 東亞飛蝗(huang)(夏蝗(huang))偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)有出(chu)現高密度(du)蝗(huang)點的可能，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)29萬(wan)畝，需防治面積(ji)(ji)12萬(wan)畝;土蝗(huang)在(zai)北(bei)部(bu)常發(fa)(fa)區中等、局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)380萬(wan)畝;一代草(cao)地(di)螟輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng);粘蟲中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)500萬(wan)畝。
4、雜(za)糧病(bing)蟲害 粟葉甲(jia)在(zai)(zai)忻(xin)州(zhou)、長治(zhi)(zhi)、呂梁、晉(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)、太原、晉(jin)城等谷(gu)子(zi)主產(chan)區中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)130萬(wan)畝;粟灰螟偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)100萬(wan)畝;谷(gu)子(zi)白發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)呈上(shang)升態(tai)勢，在(zai)(zai)晉(jin)城、長治(zhi)(zhi)、晉(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)山、忻(xin)州(zhou)等地偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)60萬(wan)畝。高粱蚜在(zai)(zai)高粱集中(zhong)(zhong)產(chan)區偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)20萬(wan)畝。
5、馬(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯病蟲害 馬(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯28星(xing)瓢蟲中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)150萬(wan)畝(mu);馬(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯豆芫菁(jing)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝(mu);馬(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯晚疫病偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)200萬(wan)畝(mu);馬(ma)鈴(ling)(ling)薯病毒病中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)30萬(wan)畝(mu)。
6、棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)病蟲(chong)害 棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)苗蚜中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)42萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci);棉(mian)(mian)盲蝽中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)39萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci);棉(mian)(mian)薊馬、棉(mian)(mian)葉(xie)螨偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)分別(bie)為15萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、18萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci);煙粉虱中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)苗病中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);棉(mian)(mian)花(hua)鈴(ling)病中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);棉(mian)(mian)枯萎病偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);棉(mian)(mian)黃萎病偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu);紅(hong)葉(xie)莖枯病偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
7、果(guo)(guo)樹病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害 蘋(pin)(pin)果(guo)(guo)樹腐爛病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)300萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu);蘋(pin)(pin)果(guo)(guo)褐斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu); 斑(ban)(ban)點落葉(xie)(xie)病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu); 果(guo)(guo)樹白粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)輕(qing)至中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)100萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu);果(guo)(guo)樹葉(xie)(xie)螨中(zhong)(zhong)等至偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)300萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci);金紋(wen)細蛾中(zhong)(zhong)等至偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci);果(guo)(guo)樹蚧殼蟲(chong)偏(pian)輕(qing)至中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)100萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu);蘋(pin)(pin)小(xiao)(xiao)卷葉(xie)(xie)蛾，桃(tao)小(xiao)(xiao)食心(xin)蟲(chong)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)分別(bie)為90、100萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu);梨(li)小(xiao)(xiao)食心(xin)蟲(chong)在桃(tao)樹和梨(li)樹上偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)80萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。
8、蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai) 保護地(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)土傳病(bing)(bing)害(hai)(hai)、瓜類白(bai)粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)、黃(huang)瓜霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)、番茄(qie)(qie)(qie)疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)、葉霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)偏重發(fa)生;保護地(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)苗期病(bing)(bing)害(hai)(hai)、枯萎病(bing)(bing)、莖基腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)、蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、美(mei)洲斑(ban)潛蠅、粉(fen)虱等(deng)小(xiao)型害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏重發(fa)生;露地(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)田小(xiao)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蛾、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、甘藍夜(ye)蛾、煙青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、菜(cai)(cai)(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏重發(fa)生;露地(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)、茄(qie)(qie)(qie)子(zi)黃(huang)萎病(bing)(bing)、番茄(qie)(qie)(qie)早疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)、大(da)白(bai)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)等(deng)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)，局部偏重發(fa)生。蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)生面積(ji)1200萬畝次。
三、預報依據
1、冬(dong)前(qian)(qian)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)基數(shu) 11月20日前(qian)(qian)后，全(quan)省麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區測(ce)報站開展了冬(dong)前(qian)(qian)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)普查，結果顯示,各(ge)地冬(dong)前(qian)(qian)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)主要病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害基數(shu)接(jie)近(jin)或高(gao)(gao)于上年(nian)(nian)同期。 其中麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蜘蛛(zhu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)尺行(xing)長有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)7.2 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，接(jie)近(jin)去年(nian)(nian)，比(bi)(bi)常年(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)23.8%，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)24頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蜘蛛(zhu)基數(shu)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)的(de)洪洞(dong)縣平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)尺行(xing)長有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)60頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，低(di)(di)于去年(nian)(nian)同期的(de)25-36頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和400頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜蟲(chong)(chong)田(tian)率(lv)為20-45%，平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百莖(jing)蚜量7.4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)60.9%，比(bi)(bi)常年(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)33.9%，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)400多(duo)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)(chong)淘土調查，運城(cheng)市的(de)永濟平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)每樣(yang)方有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)0.2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)79%;臨(lin)汾市平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)每樣(yang)方有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)0.15頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)常年(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)78%，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)35%。小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)白粉病(bing)全(quan)省平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)田(tian)率(lv)3-8%，病(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)2.5%，較(jiao)上年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)66.7%，較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)150%。葉(xie)銹(xiu)病(bing)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)1%，與去年(nian)(nian)持平(ping)(ping)(ping)，較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)減少26.5%。紋枯病(bing)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)0.9%，較(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)減少59%，較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)減少73%。條銹(xiu)病(bing)冬(dong)前(qian)(qian)未查到(dao)。
冬麥區9月(yue)份(fen)調(diao)查，地(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)蟲(chong)(chong)口密(mi)度(du)略低于前兩年(nian)同期，一般田(tian)平均土壤含蟲(chong)(chong)量每平方米(mi)(mi)3.2頭(蠐螬(cao)占60%以(yi)上(shang))，嚴(yan)重地(di)塊蟲(chong)(chong)量超過6頭。11月(yue)上(shang)旬，萬榮、臨猗(yi)等地(di)調(diao)查，麥苗(miao)受害(hai)率0.1-2.0%，明顯低于去(qu)年(nian)。另外，2014年(nian)我省部分玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)產區以(yi)蠐螬(cao)、金(jin)針蟲(chong)(chong)為(wei)主的地(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)發生較(jiao)重，全省發生面(mian)積(ji)達(da)1000多萬畝(mu)，為(wei)害(hai)株(zhu)率一般3-5%，嚴(yan)重田(tian)塊高達(da)12%以(yi)上(shang)。
11月下(xia)旬各地剝桿(gan)(gan)(gan)調(diao)查，玉米螟全省(sheng)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)12.58頭(tou)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)74.5頭(tou)，較(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)56.3%，較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)45.8%。其中(zhong)運城鹽湖平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)44頭(tou)，比(bi)最(zui)高(gao)(gao)年(nian)(nian)份(fen)的去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)21.4%，比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)2.9%。晉中(zhong)太谷百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)10.6頭(tou)，比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)41.1%。太原王郭(guo)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)9.3頭(tou)，比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)15.5%。呂梁(liang)汾陽市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)稈含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)17頭(tou)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)88頭(tou)，且低(di)于常年(nian)(nian);忻州代縣平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)9頭(tou)，比(bi)最(zui)高(gao)(gao)年(nian)(nian)份(fen)的去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)85.7，比(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)95.2%;原平(ping)(ping)市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)74.5頭(tou)，南胡(hu)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)27.6頭(tou)，均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)低(di)于去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期。大(da)同市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)(han)(han)蟲(chong)(chong)4頭(tou)。
東亞飛蝗(huang)殘蝗(huang)面積(ji)5.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，較(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)3.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝。每(mei)公(gong)頃(qing)殘蝗(huang)密度90-149頭的(de)面積(ji)4.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，比上(shang)年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)1.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝;150-450頭的(de)面積(ji)0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝，比上(shang)年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)1.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝。運城市(shi)挖卵調查：沿黃6縣市(shi)，共取樣(yang)940平(ping)(ping)米，有卵樣(yang)點(dian)為(wei)18個，卵塊(kuai)(kuai)50塊(kuai)(kuai)，卵粒(li)(li)(li)數1900粒(li)(li)(li)，平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米有卵2.02粒(li)(li)(li)，明顯高于上(shang)年(nian)的(de)1.16粒(li)(li)(li)。
土蝗殘蝗面積(ji)150萬(wan)畝，明(ming)顯(xian)高(gao)(gao)于上年(nian)。大同、朔(shuo)州、忻(xin)州、呂梁等地共取樣調查(cha)308平(ping)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)，有卵塊(kuai)(kuai)238個，平(ping)均每平(ping)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)有卵2.02塊(kuai)(kuai)，明(ming)顯(xian)高(gao)(gao)于2013年(nian)的(de)0.68塊(kuai)(kuai);每平(ping)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)卵粒(li)(li)數16粒(li)(li)，高(gao)(gao)于上年(nian)的(de)13.5粒(li)(li)，接近近五年(nian)平(ping)均數。 每平(ping)方(fang)(fang)米(mi)卵粒(li)(li)數最高(gao)(gao)84粒(li)(li)，明(ming)顯(xian)低(di)于上年(nian)的(de)205粒(li)(li)。
草地(di)螟全(quan)省共調查(cha)332平方米(mi)，未(wei)查(cha)到越冬(dong)繭。
呂梁、大同、長治、忻州調查，谷子百茬含(han)粟(su)灰螟分別(bie)為3.6頭(tou)、4.5頭(tou)、1.8頭(tou)、2.8，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)10頭(tou)，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去(qu)年和近3 年均值(zhi)。
冬前調查平(ping)均(jun)每畝有棉(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)蛹：運城、臨汾棉(mian)田一般66.7-120頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，低(di)(di)于去(qu)年(nian)的66.7-200頭(tou)(tou)(tou);玉米田一般93.3-393.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高于去(qu)年(nian)的46.7-266.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。11月下旬(xun)運城調查，花椒樹蚜枝(zhi)率40%左右，五(wu)寸枝(zhi)條平(ping)均(jun)有棉(mian)蚜49頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，蚜量低(di)(di)于去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)。危害末期(qi)調查，棉(mian)盲蝽畝殘蟲(chong)368頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，較去(qu)年(nian)多近(jin)300頭(tou)(tou)(tou);煙粉虱蟲(chong)株(zhu)率65%，高于去(qu)年(nian)的58%;棉(mian)葉螨螨株(zhu)率23%，高于近(jin)兩年(nian)的8-10%。棉(mian)枯(ku)萎病(bing)、黃(huang)萎病(bing)、苗(miao)病(bing)、鈴(ling)病(bing)、紅葉莖枯(ku)病(bing)后期(qi)病(bing)田率分別為(wei)8%、15%、9%、11%、2%。
11月(yue)底調查，蘋果樹腐爛(lan)病(bing)(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)果園平(ping)均發病(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率10%～20%，嚴重的果園為(wei)(wei)30%～40%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)65%，低于去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期。蘋果白粉病(bing)(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)果園病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率3%～5%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)10%，接近(jin)于去年(nian)。9月(yue)底調查，斑(ban)點落葉(xie)病(bing)(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)發病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率為(wei)(wei)25%，比去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期高(gao)(gao)17%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)30%。蘋果褐斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)平(ping)均發病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率為(wei)(wei)30%，比去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期高(gao)(gao)20%，比歷年(nian)高(gao)(gao)18.2%，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)50%。
果實采收前調(diao)查，桃小食(shi)心蟲(chong)(chong)平均蛀(zhu)果率達(da)1%～3%，與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)持平，最(zui)(zui)高達(da)40%。蘋小卷葉(xie)蛾(e)為(wei)害葉(xie)率平均5%～8%，比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)高2%，百葉(xie)有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)3.8頭(tou)(tou),比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)高1.5頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高10頭(tou)(tou)。金紋細蛾(e)平均被害葉(xie)率為(wei)2%～3%，比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)低(di)1%，最(zui)(zui)高12%;百葉(xie)有(you)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)2～3頭(tou)(tou)，比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)多0.2頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)高10頭(tou)(tou)。11月中旬調(diao)查，山楂葉(xie)螨每100平方厘米有(you)越(yue)冬螨9頭(tou)(tou)，接近去(qu)年(nian)(nian)，最(zui)(zui)高24頭(tou)(tou)。
2、氣(qi)象條件 春季(3-5月(yue)(yue))氣(qi)溫(wen)略偏(pian)(pian)高，運(yun)城(cheng)市(shi)、臨汾市(shi)和晉城(cheng)市(shi)降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)1～2成(cheng)(cheng)，對(dui)小(xiao)麥、果(guo)樹、棉(mian)花主產區喜旱(han)的螨類、蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)及(ji)小(xiao)菜(cai)(cai)蛾等(deng)發生有(you)利(li)，對(dui)小(xiao)麥白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)喜濕性病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)(hai)的發生不(bu)利(li);其(qi)余大(da)部(bu)分地區降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)1～2成(cheng)(cheng)，對(dui)保護(hu)地蔬菜(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)(hai)發生有(you)利(li)。夏(xia)季(6-8月(yue)(yue))氣(qi)溫(wen)略偏(pian)(pian)高。6月(yue)(yue)降(jiang)水(shui)，大(da)同市(shi)、朔州(zhou)市(shi)、忻州(zhou)市(shi)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)1～2成(cheng)(cheng)，對(dui)這些地區玉(yu)米(mi)大(da)斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)、馬鈴薯(shu)晚疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)的發生有(you)利(li);其(qi)余大(da)部(bu)分地區偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，尤其(qi)運(yun)城(cheng)市(shi)偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)2～5成(cheng)(cheng)，對(dui)喜旱(han)的蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、螨類、棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)等(deng)在中南部(bu)的發生有(you)利(li)。7-8月(yue)(yue)南部(bu)降(jiang)雨偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)，有(you)利(li)于玉(yu)米(mi)螟、粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)、甜菜(cai)(cai)夜(ye)蛾等(deng)喜濕性害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)以及(ji)玉(yu)米(mi)、果(guo)樹、蔬菜(cai)(cai)等(deng)作(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)(hai)的發生。北部(bu)降(jiang)雨偏(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，有(you)利(li)于玉(yu)米(mi)紅蜘蛛、蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、土(tu)蝗、小(xiao)菜(cai)(cai)蛾等(deng)喜旱(han)性蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)的發生。
3、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態條(tiao)件(jian) 因小麥播期(qi)(qi)降雨多影響了適期(qi)(qi)播種(zhong)(zhong)，導致播期(qi)(qi)長(chang)達50余天，且普(pu)遍(bian)推(tui)遲10天左(zuo)右(you)，但播前底墑好，目前小麥苗(miao)(miao)(miao)齡雖普(pu)遍(bian)偏小，但苗(miao)(miao)(miao)情明(ming)顯(xian)好于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)，苗(miao)(miao)(miao)情比(bi)例為4:4:2;小麥主(zhu)栽品種(zhong)(zhong)與常年(nian)(nian)相同，總體易感白粉病、紋枯病和銹病。近幾年(nian)(nian)我省玉米年(nian)(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)穩定，尤其先(xian)玉335品種(zhong)(zhong)以及(ji)(ji)與此有(you)親(qin)緣關系(xi)的(de)(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)大面(mian)積(ji)(ji)集中連片種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產上種(zhong)(zhong)資趨于(yu)單一化(hua)，遺傳(chuan)(chuan)基(ji)礎脆弱，存在著較(jiao)(jiao)高的(de)(de)病害(hai)流(liu)行風險，也易感紅蜘(zhi)蛛的(de)(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。許多馬(ma)鈴(ling)薯(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)區薯(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)較(jiao)(jiao)雜，脫毒(du)種(zhong)(zhong)薯(shu)數(shu)量有(you)限(xian)，抗性退化(hua)，對晚疫(yi)病、病毒(du)病等發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)有(you)利。抗蟲(chong)(chong)棉種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)近年(nian)(nian)一直占棉花面(mian)積(ji)(ji)95%以上，使二(er)、三(san)代棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)受到抑制;棉田用藥量的(de)(de)減少，蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)抗藥性的(de)(de)增強將使棉盲蝽(chun)、粉虱、薊馬(ma)等危(wei)害(hai)加重。秸稈(gan)還(huan)田免耕技(ji)術以及(ji)(ji)機械化(hua)聯合收(shou)割機的(de)(de)大面(mian)積(ji)(ji)推(tui)廣，大量秸稈(gan)殘留地表對地下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)、二(er)點委(wei)葉蛾、玉米大斑(ban)病以及(ji)(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)傳(chuan)(chuan)、土傳(chuan)(chuan)病蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)有(you)利。
