近日，全國農技中心在上海召開2017年全國農作物種子產供(gong)需形勢分析秋季例會(hui)(hui)。會(hui)(hui)議調度(du)了(le)(le)春(chun)夏(xia)(xia)播(bo)主(zhu)要農作物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)子收獲和(he)秋冬種(zhong)(zhong)作物(wu)繁種(zhong)(zhong)落(luo)實情況，會(hui)(hui)商了(le)(le)2018年主(zhu)要作物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)子產供(gong)需形勢。會(hui)(hui)議認為，今(jin)年雜(za)交(jiao)玉米制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積和(he)總產大幅調減，雜(za)交(jiao)水稻(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)產量基(ji)本持(chi)平；明(ming)年春(chun)夏(xia)(xia)播(bo)雜(za)交(jiao)玉米種(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)過于求程度(du)有所緩(huan)解，雜(za)交(jiao)水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)過于求程度(du)顯著加重。
雜交玉(yu)米(mi) 據各省（區、市）調(diao)度(du)統計，2017年(nian)全國雜交玉(yu)米(mi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)收獲(huo)面(mian)積(ji)293萬畝，同比減(jian)少28.54%，為近(jin)15年(nian)來的(de)最低(di)水(shui)平；新產(chan)種(zhong)子10.58億(yi)公(gong)斤，同比減(jian)少27.75%。制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)大幅(fu)調(diao)減(jian)，主要是因為玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)植結構調(diao)整和(he)種(zhong)子庫(ku)存壓力較大；單產(chan)略(lve)高于常年(nian)水(shui)平，平均畝產(chan)361公(gong)斤，盡管(guan)西北制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)基地局部地區先(xian)后遭遇低(di)溫、風(feng)雹、高溫干熱風(feng)、收獲(huo)期降(jiang)雪和(he)病蟲等災(zai)害，但(dan)災(zai)害影響小于預期；繁(fan)制(zhi)(zhi)新品種(zhong)數量大幅(fu)增加，老品種(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)急劇下降(jiang)，2018年(nian)玉(yu)米(mi)市場品種(zhong)結構更(geng)新速度(du)將加快。
從供(gong)給(gei)看(kan)，雖然(ran)多(duo)年(nian)積壓的種(zhong)(zhong)子加速轉商，但今年(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積調減(jian)超(chao)出(chu)預期，期末(mo)有效(xiao)庫存(cun)量(liang)(liang)(liang)在8億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右，今年(nian)新產種(zhong)(zhong)子10.58億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，明年(nian)春(chun)夏播種(zhong)(zhong)子總(zong)供(gong)給(gei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)將達18億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)以上(shang)。從需(xu)求看(kan)，玉米種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積調減(jian)基本到位(wei)，玉米價格(ge)企穩回升，加上(shang)調增面(mian)積較大(da)的花生(sheng)、大(da)豆等(deng)價格(ge)下跌，預期玉米面(mian)積將反彈(dan)，需(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)在11億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右。會議(yi)認為，明年(nian)玉米種(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)將明顯好轉，價格(ge)止跌回升，期末(mo)有效(xiao)庫存(cun)有望(wang)降到7億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)以下。
雜交稻(dao)2017年(nian)雜交水稻(dao)制(zhi)種收獲(huo)面積167萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)加(jia)2.69%；畝產(chan)167公斤(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降2.34%；新產(chan)種子2.8億公斤(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)持平。湖(hu)南洪災(zai)對春制(zhi)和早(zao)夏制(zhi)“三系”組合授粉影響較(jiao)大，夏制(zhi)“三系”制(zhi)種遲熟(shu)組合病害發(fa)生較(jiao)重，單產(chan)比(bi)去年(nian)略減。江蘇收獲(huo)期遭(zao)受連續(xu)陰(yin)雨(yu)，導致倒(dao)伏(fu)、穗發(fa)芽，加(jia)上黑(hei)粉病爆發(fa)，單產(chan)明顯低于正常年(nian)份。
從供(gong)(gong)給看，今年新收獲雜(za)交(jiao)水稻種子(zi)(zi)2.8億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)，加上期(qi)末有效庫存1億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)，明年可(ke)供(gong)(gong)種子(zi)(zi)總量3.8億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)左右(you)。從需求看，水稻最(zui)低收購價下降(jiang)可(ke)能導致種植面(mian)積(ji)小幅調(diao)減(jian)，常規稻繼(ji)續擠壓雜(za)交(jiao)水稻面(mian)積(ji)，而直播稻面(mian)積(ji)將進(jin)一步擴大，預期(qi)明年用(yong)種總量在2.3億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)左右(you)，加上出口3000萬公斤(jin)(jin)左右(you)，期(qi)末將余(yu)種1.2億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)，供(gong)(gong)過于求的(de)程度(du)進(jin)一步加重。其(qi)中(zhong)，雜(za)交(jiao)早(zao)稻種子(zi)(zi)供(gong)(gong)需平衡(heng)略有余(yu)，但湖南、江西早(zao)稻制種受災減(jian)產(chan)較重，預計部分品種可(ke)能緊(jin)平衡(heng)；雜(za)交(jiao)中(zhong)稻種子(zi)(zi)過剩嚴重，品種競爭激烈，價格分化明顯；雜(za)交(jiao)晚稻種子(zi)(zi)供(gong)(gong)需平衡(heng)有余(yu)。
其他(ta) 其他(ta)作物種子供需(xu)(xu)平(ping)衡有(you)余。預計(ji)明年棉花(hua)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)總體穩定，雜交棉下降(jiang)(jiang)到852萬(wan)畝，常規棉回升至(zhi)4122萬(wan)畝，共(gong)需(xu)(xu)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)種子1.0萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，供給總量(liang)1.3萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，供需(xu)(xu)平(ping)衡有(you)余。預計(ji)明年常規稻(dao)種植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)基本穩定，種子商(shang)品(pin)(pin)化率提(ti)高，商(shang)品(pin)(pin)種子需(xu)(xu)求量(liang)7.68億公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。黑龍(long)江大(da)豆(dou)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)調減，吉林、河南(nan)、山西等省將(jiang)(jiang)調增，大(da)豆(dou)需(xu)(xu)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)種子4.2億公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。馬(ma)鈴薯種植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)持平(ping)，種薯商(shang)品(pin)(pin)化率下降(jiang)(jiang)，種薯需(xu)(xu)求略下降(jiang)(jiang)。
秋(qiu)冬種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong) 本季全國(guo)秋(qiu)冬種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)麥種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子數量充足(zu)，質量好于(yu)往年(nian)(nian)(nian)，市場(chang)運(yun)行平穩，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子商(shang)品化率略下降。河(he)南、安徽(hui)受降雨影響播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)延遲，畝用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量有(you)所加大。本季落(luo)實冬小(xiao)麥繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積1173萬(wan)畝，同比減(jian)少(shao)60萬(wan)畝，預計產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)53億(yi)公(gong)斤。預期明(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)秋(qiu)冬種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)麥種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積略有(you)增加，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子可滿足(zu)明(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)冬小(xiao)麥用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需求。
本季(ji)全(quan)國冬(dong)(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)夏收面積(ji)(ji)下降，但(dan)種(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)情況好于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)，種(zhong)(zhong)子總產(chan)高(gao)于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)，供應充足。本季(ji)落實(shi)油菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)面積(ji)(ji)13萬(wan)畝，同(tong)比減少1萬(wan)畝，延續近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來的下降態(tai)勢，預(yu)(yu)計可產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)子1237萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)。其中，雜交冬(dong)(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)10萬(wan)畝，預(yu)(yu)計產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)814萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)；常規冬(dong)(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)3萬(wan)畝，預(yu)(yu)計產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)422萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)。預(yu)(yu)計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)秋冬(dong)(dong)種(zhong)(zhong)油菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)(ji)和(he)商品種(zhong)(zhong)子用量(liang)基(ji)本穩(wen)定(ding)，種(zhong)(zhong)子供需平(ping)衡有余。
（豫儂）
