近日，全國農技中心在四川省成都市召開了全國農作物種子產供需形勢分析秋季例會。會議調度了秋冬種作物種子的制繁種面積及其田間生長情況，分析了2019年農作物種子產供需形勢、種子市場運行特點以及未來發展趨勢，部署了下階段種業信息工作的重點(dian)任務。
根據會議紀要(yao)，2019年玉米(mi)種子(zi)過(guo)剩狀(zhuang)(zhuang)況(kuang)繼(ji)續好轉，明年期末庫(ku)存將降至安全線內(nei)，雜交稻種子(zi)過(guo)剩狀(zhuang)(zhuang)況(kuang)不容樂觀。
一、春夏(xia)播作物種(zhong)子生產結果(guo)
雜交玉米
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今年全國制種收獲面積256萬畝，比去年增加19萬畝，增幅為8%，其中大田玉米227萬畝，青貯玉米26萬畝，鮮食玉米3萬畝。新產種子9.9億公斤，比去年增加0.68億公斤，增幅為7%。玉米制種面積在連續兩年大幅調減后，綜合用種面積回升、市場需求回暖、庫存壓力減輕等有利因素，促使企業理性調增(zeng)了制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積。盡管四川基地遭受重災大幅減產(chan)(chan)，但甘肅、新疆等主要基地總體表現優(you)于(yu)正常年(nian)份，全(quan)國平(ping)均制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)單產(chan)(chan)仍達到387公斤(jin)/畝(mu)，處于(yu)歷史(shi)較高水平(ping)。制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)構繼續呈現品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數(shu)量增(zeng)多、品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)平(ping)均制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積下降(jiang)趨勢，抗(kang)熱性差(cha)的美系血(xue)緣品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積調減，同時(shi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)萬(wan)畝(mu)以上的品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數(shu)量回升，鄭單958等經受住市場檢驗的大品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、宜籽粒機(ji)收品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積調增(zeng)。
雜交稻
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全國(guo)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲(huo)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)138萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)調(diao)減(jian)(jian)31萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，減(jian)(jian)幅為18%；其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)早稻(dao)18萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、晚稻(dao)35萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，分別比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)15萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、12萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，減(jian)(jian)幅分別為46%、12%、10%；兩(liang)系(xi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲(huo)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)58萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，三(san)系(xi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲(huo)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，分別比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)17萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、14萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。單(dan)產(chan)為173公(gong)斤/畝(mu)(mu)，略高(gao)于與去(qu)(qu)年(nian)，處于歷史較(jiao)高(gao)水平。全國(guo)新(xin)產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子約2.4億公(gong)斤，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)18%，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)新(xin)產(chan)早稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子3166萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子14647萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤、晚稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子5959萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，分別比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)50%、5%、16%；兩(liang)系(xi)稻(dao)新(xin)產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子9890萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，三(san)系(xi)稻(dao)新(xin)產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子13882萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，分別比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)22%、14%。會議認為，雜(za)交水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)進入結(jie)構轉型陣痛期(qi)。C兩(liang)優(you)(you)(you)(you)系(xi)列等近(jin)年(nian)推廣面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)大但優(you)(you)(you)(you)質特點不突出(chu)的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、Ⅱ優(you)(you)(you)(you)系(xi)列和(he)岡優(you)(you)(you)(you)系(xi)列等推廣時間較(jiao)長的(de)普通品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)大幅下降，野香優(you)(you)(you)(you)系(xi)列等優(you)(you)(you)(you)質稻(dao)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、甬優(you)(you)(you)(you)系(xi)列等產(chan)量優(you)(you)(you)(you)勢品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)穩中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)升。
其他主要(yao)作(zuo)物
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全國(guo)常(chang)規稻繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積(ji)173萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)略(lve)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)2萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，黑龍江(jiang)(jiang)、湖北(bei)、江(jiang)(jiang)西部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)基地因(yin)暴(bao)雨(yu)等(deng)不利天氣影響造成(cheng)單(dan)產下降，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)8.64億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)0.18億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。大豆繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲371萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)48萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，主要基地除黑龍江(jiang)(jiang)因(yin)低溫連陰(yin)雨(yu)、山(shan)東因(yin)前期干(gan)旱導致單(dan)產略(lve)有(you)下降外，河南、安徽(hui)、內(nei)蒙等(deng)省均明顯好(hao)于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)5.75億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.87億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。棉(mian)花繁(fan)(fan)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積(ji)147萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)15310萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)27萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、3121萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，連續(xu)兩年(nian)(nian)大幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)；其中雜交棉(mian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲1.37萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、產量(liang)(liang)109.1萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，常(chang)規棉(mian)繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲146.07萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、產量(liang)(liang)15200.8萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。馬鈴薯繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積(ji)308萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)薯55.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)130萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、16.9億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。春小麥(mai)繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積(ji)74萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)2.52億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)13.2萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、0.34億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。春油(you)菜繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積(ji)9.04萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)1158萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2.57萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、357萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。
二、2020年春夏播作物種子供需(xu)形勢
（一）雜交玉米種子產需(xu)基本(ben)平(ping)衡，庫存回到合理水平(ping)。
從總供給看，本期末有效庫存為6.5億公斤左右，加上今年新產種子9.9億公斤，明年春夏播玉米種子總供給量約為16.4億公斤。從總需求看，今年玉米商品糧價格穩步回升，預計今后一段時間仍將穩中有升，玉米種植效益將進一步提高，勢必推高農民種植玉米積極性，加之在超級“豬周期”影響下國家鼓勵生豬養殖將拉動飼用玉米需求，中美貿易摩擦趨緩將擴大大豆進口，預計明年玉米種植面積仍有所增加，考慮到畝用種量將穩中有降，預計商品種子需求量在10.6億公斤左右，明年春夏播結束后期末庫存將下降到5.5億公斤左右，期末庫存量與年度需種量比率回落到52%，該比率近8年來首次進入30%－60%的安全區。由于四川基地嚴重減產，西南地區要關注貴州調減玉米政策的力度，防止部分地區出現個別類型種子供應偏(pian)緊(jin)風險。從市(shi)場(chang)(chang)走勢看(kan)，預計種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)(chang)將繼(ji)續回暖(nuan)，宜籽(zi)粒(li)機收(shou)品種(zhong)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)份(fen)額將明顯(xian)擴大；品種(zhong)價格分(fen)化趨勢更加明顯(xian)，品牌化、區域特色強、耐熱性好、市(shi)場(chang)(chang)綜合表現穩定的品種(zhong)價格將穩中有升。
（二）雜交(jiao)水(shui)稻種子依然供(gong)過于(yu)求，行業轉型壓力(li)加(jia)大。
從總(zong)供(gong)給看，今年雜(za)交水稻(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)大(da)幅(fu)回調(diao)，單產(chan)略高于(yu)去(qu)年，新收(shou)獲種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)2.4億公(gong)斤，加(jia)(jia)上期末(mo)有(you)效庫(ku)存(cun)1.6億公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，明(ming)年可(ke)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)總(zong)量仍(reng)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)4億公(gong)斤左(zuo)右高位(wei)。從總(zong)需(xu)(xu)求看，優質常(chang)規稻(dao)擠(ji)壓效應持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)，直播稻(dao)、雙改單、再生(sheng)稻(dao)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)將(jiang)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)增加(jia)(jia)，稻(dao)田綜合種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)養在(zai)一定程(cheng)度上變向(xiang)調(diao)低(di)(di)水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)；同時今年維持(chi)(chi)(chi)去(qu)年最(zui)低(di)(di)收(shou)購價(jia)水平，但實(shi)際收(shou)購中部分(fen)地區(qu)達(da)不到(dao)該收(shou)購價(jia)格(ge)，加(jia)(jia)之(zhi)水稻(dao)實(shi)現大(da)規模優質優價(jia)仍(reng)需(xu)(xu)時日，農民種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植水稻(dao)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)較效益(yi)和積(ji)極性持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)處于(yu)低(di)(di)迷狀態(tai)，預計(ji)雜(za)交水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)小(xiao)幅(fu)調(diao)減，畝用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量保持(chi)(chi)(chi)穩(wen)定，明(ming)年總(zong)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量在(zai)2.1－2.2億公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，出(chu)口(kou)穩(wen)定在(zai)3000萬公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，期末(mo)余種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)仍(reng)1.6億公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，供(gong)過于(yu)求的(de)(de)(de)程(cheng)度不減。從市場走勢(shi)看，全國雜(za)交水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市場滯銷(xiao)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)規模轉商出(chu)清、優質品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)市場規模迅速擴張并(bing)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)態(tai)勢(shi)已經確立，水稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)結構(gou)轉型陣痛加(jia)(jia)劇(ju)，庫(ku)存(cun)積(ji)壓品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)市場份額(e)(e)繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)大(da)幅(fu)下降，優質食味品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)份額(e)(e)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)加(jia)(jia)大(da)、擴張速度或更加(jia)(jia)迅猛，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)分(fen)化繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)加(jia)(jia)劇(ju)，但各(ge)地需(xu)(xu)重點關注(zhu)優質品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植蘊藏(zang)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)風(feng)險。
（三）其他作物種子(zi)供需平(ping)衡有余(yu)。
受優質稻(dao)持續快速發(fa)展(zhan)、“種子(zi)(zi)+”全產(chan)業鏈融合(he)發(fa)展(zhan)模式(shi)實踐增(zeng)(zeng)多(duo)、“水稻(dao)+”新(xin)型(xing)生產(chan)模式(shi)推(tui)廣范圍擴大等因素影響(xiang)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)明(ming)年常規(gui)稻(dao)種植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積穩中有(you)增(zeng)(zeng)，商品(pin)(pin)種子(zi)(zi)需求量7.3億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，常規(gui)稻(dao)種子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)平衡有(you)余(yu)；今年大豆(dou)振興政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)從醞(yun)釀到落地持續發(fa)力，雖然(ran)中美貿(mao)易(yi)摩擦緩和會在一定(ding)程度上影響(xiang)推(tui)進速度，但國家(jia)復興大豆(dou)產(chan)業的政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)決心(xin)不(bu)變(bian)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)明(ming)年大豆(dou)種植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積繼續調增(zeng)(zeng)，幅度大小(xiao)仍需視玉米(mi)大豆(dou)種植(zhi)比較效益(yi)和政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)力度而定(ding)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)商品(pin)(pin)種子(zi)(zi)需求量或將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)到5億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，今年新(xin)產(chan)大豆(dou)種子(zi)(zi)能(neng)保(bao)證明(ming)年用種需求；綜合(he)考(kao)慮(lv)棉花價格補貼政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)延(yan)續實施的可能(neng)性和商品(pin)(pin)棉市(shi)場處于(yu)景氣區間，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)明(ming)年棉花種植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積將(jiang)(jiang)基本穩定(ding)，按常規(gui)棉種植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積4366萬畝(mu)，雜交棉740萬畝(mu)測算(suan)，共需商品(pin)(pin)種子(zi)(zi)9634萬公斤(jin)(jin)，棉花種子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)總量18097萬公斤(jin)(jin)，種子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)顯著大于(yu)需求。
三、秋冬(dong)種(zhong)作物種(zhong)子市場(chang)及(ji)繁種(zhong)落實情(qing)況
冬小麥
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今(jin)年(nian)(nian)小(xiao)麥(mai)繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)豐收(shou)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供(gong)應(ying)量(liang)足(zu)質(zhi)優(you)，市場啟動(dong)偏晚(wan)、運行平穩、競爭激烈(lie)。黃淮海麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)、長江中下游麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)商(shang)品(pin)化率普(pu)遍降低5%－10%左右，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價格較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)下降，河南、安徽等省下降0.2元/公斤(jin)以上，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)企業壓力明(ming)顯增大(da)；除(chu)甘(gan)肅部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)小(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)受收(shou)獲期陰雨(yu)影響，質(zhi)量(liang)有所下降導致(zhi)供(gong)應(ying)偏緊外，西(xi)北麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)和西(xi)南麥(mai)區(qu)(qu)價格總(zong)體與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)持平略降。隨著農業綠色(se)高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發展加快推進(jin)(jin)，市場對抗赤霉病、優(you)質(zhi)高(gao)(gao)產、特(te)色(se)專用的強筋、中強筋、弱筋小(xiao)麥(mai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的需(xu)求(qiu)進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)加大(da)，區(qu)(qu)域(yu)特(te)色(se)的節水(shui)小(xiao)麥(mai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)提高(gao)(gao)。本季落實冬(dong)小(xiao)麥(mai)繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)1118.52萬畝，與今(jin)年(nian)(nian)7月繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)獲面(mian)(mian)積(ji)基(ji)本持平，預(yu)(yu)計產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)52億公斤(jin)。預(yu)(yu)計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)冬(dong)小(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)基(ji)本穩定，預(yu)(yu)產小(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)可滿(man)足(zu)明(ming)年(nian)(nian)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)。
冬油菜
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今年(nian)(nian)冬油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場啟動正常，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)應充(chong)足，品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)類型豐富，各(ge)(ge)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)主(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)(chan)區主(zhu)(zhu)導品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)系列穩定。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)格(ge)除四川小幅(fu)上升(sheng)外，其他主(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)(chan)區總體(ti)與去年(nian)(nian)持平，品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間價(jia)格(ge)分(fen)化明(ming)顯，“雙(shuang)低”油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、出油(you)(you)(you)率高、適宜機收的(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受(shou)農(nong)戶青睞，價(jia)格(ge)持續走(zou)高。當前，受(shou)主(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)(chan)區持續干(gan)旱導致無法播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)影(ying)響，農(nong)戶種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子退貨量或(huo)有所增加，需引(yin)起各(ge)(ge)地高度(du)關注。本季落實冬油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)16.35萬(wan)畝(mu)，比今年(nian)(nian)7月(yue)繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲增加0.3萬(wan)畝(mu)。其中，雜交冬油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)達到13.42萬(wan)畝(mu)，預計產(chan)(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1323萬(wan)公斤(jin)，常規冬油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)2.93萬(wan)畝(mu)，預計產(chan)(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)432萬(wan)公斤(jin)。受(shou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效益和農(nong)村產(chan)(chan)業多元化發展影(ying)響，預計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)冬油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面積(ji)將穩中有升(sheng)，直播等輕簡(jian)化栽(zai)培面積(ji)也將擴(kuo)大，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子需求量呈上升(sheng)趨勢，明(ming)年(nian)(nian)秋(qiu)冬種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)需平衡(heng)有余。
