據全國農業技術推廣(guang)(guang)服務中(zhong)心冬前組織科(ke)研、教學和推廣(guang)(guang)單位專家會(hui)商結果，結合(he)(he)水稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)基數、栽培制度、冬春季氣候條件等因(yin)素綜合(he)(he)分析，預計(ji)2013年水稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害將呈(cheng)偏重發生(sheng)態勢，發生(sheng)面積(ji)15.2億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次，將對3.5億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)水稻(dao)(dao)生(sheng)產(chan)構成威(wei)脅。其中(zhong)，蟲(chong)害以稻(dao)(dao)飛虱、稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟和二化螟為主，發生(sheng)面積(ji)10.5億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次；病(bing)(bing)(bing)害以為紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)為主，發生(sheng)面積(ji)4.7億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)。
一(yi)、發生(sheng)趨勢
（一(yi)）蟲害。稻(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)在(zai)(zai)南(nan)方大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積4億畝(mu)次(ci)；稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)葉螟在(zai)(zai)華南(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)東部(bu)和(he)長江(jiang)中(zhong)下游稻(dao)(dao)區偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他稻(dao)(dao)區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積2.8億畝(mu)次(ci)；二化螟在(zai)(zai)長江(jiang)中(zhong)游、西(xi)南(nan)中(zhong)北部(bu)、江(jiang)南(nan)西(xi)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他稻(dao)(dao)區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積2.1億畝(mu)次(ci)；三化螟在(zai)(zai)華南(nan)稻(dao)(dao)區中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他稻(dao)(dao)區偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積3000萬畝(mu)次(ci)；灰飛虱(shi)、大(da)螟、稻(dao)(dao)苞蟲等(deng)其他蟲害在(zai)(zai)部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區有(you)一(yi)定程(cheng)度發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積1.3億畝(mu)次(ci)。
（二）病(bing)(bing)(bing)害。稻紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)在全國(guo)大部稻區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)2.8億畝(mu)(mu)；稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在西(xi)南、華(hua)(hua)南、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)游和東北大部的常發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)將中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重流(liu)行，如遇適宜氣候條(tiao)件，部分(fen)感病(bing)(bing)(bing)品種存在暴發(fa)(fa)(fa)流(liu)行的可能，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)8000萬畝(mu)(mu)次；稻曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)在全國(guo)稻區(qu)(qu)有(you)加(jia)重趨勢，總體中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)5200萬畝(mu)(mu)；華(hua)(hua)南、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南和西(xi)南部分(fen)稻區(qu)(qu)南方水(shui)稻黑條(tiao)矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮(huai)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)下游稻區(qu)(qu)水(shui)稻條(tiao)紋葉枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)、水(shui)稻黑條(tiao)矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)水(shui)稻病(bing)(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)(bing)仍有(you)潛在流(liu)行的風險，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)2000萬畝(mu)(mu)；水(shui)稻白葉枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)、水(shui)稻惡苗病(bing)(bing)(bing)、水(shui)稻赤(chi)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)其他病(bing)(bing)(bing)害在部分(fen)稻區(qu)(qu)有(you)一定(ding)程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)4000萬畝(mu)(mu)。
二、預(yu)測依據(ju)
（一(yi)）病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)基(ji)數。2012年(nian)我國(guo)水稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害總體(ti)呈偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)態勢，病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)源基(ji)數較大(da)(da)。其(qi)中，稻(dao)(dao)飛虱在華(hua)南(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和江(jiang)南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)越冬(dong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)發生(sheng)程度(du)重(zhong)(zhong)，蟲(chong)口(kou)密(mi)度(du)大(da)(da)，為2013年(nian)稻(dao)(dao)飛虱的發生(sheng)提供了(le)充足的越冬(dong)蟲(chong)源；稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉(xie)螟在華(hua)南(nan)和江(jiang)南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)越冬(dong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)總體(ti)中等(deng)至偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)，越冬(dong)蟲(chong)源基(ji)數較高，有(you)利于2013年(nian)稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉(xie)螟的發生(sheng)；二(er)化螟具備偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)的基(ji)數，華(hua)南(nan)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)畝蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)高達8600頭(tou)，東北大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)畝蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般4800-6500頭(tou)，江(jiang)南(nan)、長江(jiang)中游稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)畝蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)般2000-4000頭(tou)。大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)和稻(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)田間菌源廣泛存在，具備病(bing)(bing)害流行(xing)的菌源基(ji)礎。
（二）栽(zai)(zai)培措施(shi)及(ji)水稻(dao)品(pin)種。當前，我國華南、江南、長(chang)江中游稻(dao)區(qu)單、雙季稻(dao)混(hun)栽(zai)(zai)面積大，栽(zai)(zai)插(cha)期、生(sheng)育(yu)期不整齊，橋梁田多，有(you)利(li)于(yu)遷(qian)飛性害(hai)蟲和螟蟲的遷(qian)移(yi)與輾轉為害(hai)。另外，水稻(dao)主栽(zai)(zai)品(pin)種仍(reng)以(yi)粗稈大穗、優質高(gao)產型(xing)為主，生(sheng)長(chang)量大、田間郁閉，易形成適溫高(gao)濕的田間小氣候，且大部(bu)水稻(dao)品(pin)種抗病(bing)抗蟲性普遍不高(gao)，有(you)利(li)于(yu)水稻(dao)病(bing)蟲害(hai)的發生(sheng)與流(liu)行。
（三）氣象條件(jian)。據國家氣候中(zhong)心(xin)監測，2012年(nian)入(ru)(ru)冬(dong)(dong)以(yi)來(lai)，我(wo)國華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)境外(wai)蟲源地越(yue)(yue)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、泰緬北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)(dong)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)平(ping)均(jun)溫(wen)度較常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)高1-2℃，降(jiang)(jiang)水量(liang)前冬(dong)(dong)較常(chang)年(nian)正常(chang)或偏(pian)(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)2-5成(cheng)(cheng)，但(dan)后冬(dong)(dong)境外(wai)越(yue)(yue)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、泰緬北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)(dong)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)明顯(xian)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)多(duo)，總體大氣熱量(liang)和(he)(he)水分(fen)條件(jian)對“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲的(de)越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)(dong)存(cun)活和(he)(he)繁殖有利(li)；但(dan)江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)西(xi)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游及其以(yi)北(bei)(bei)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)平(ping)均(jun)溫(wen)度普遍較常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)低，東(dong)北(bei)(bei)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)低4℃以(yi)上(shang)，不(bu)利(li)于螟(ming)蟲越(yue)(yue)冬(dong)(dong)。據預(yu)測，2013年(nian)春季，我(wo)國南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)方(fang)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)降(jiang)(jiang)水量(liang)正常(chang)或較常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)1-2成(cheng)(cheng)，一定程度上(shang)不(bu)利(li)于“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲的(de)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)為害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)，但(dan)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)降(jiang)(jiang)雨偏(pian)(pian)(pian)多(duo)，且全國稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)溫(wen)度正常(chang)或較常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)高1-2℃，加之受西(xi)太(tai)平(ping)洋副(fu)高強度偏(pian)(pian)(pian)強、位置偏(pian)(pian)(pian)西(xi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)北(bei)(bei)影響，天氣條件(jian)總體仍有利(li)于“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲的(de)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)和(he)(he)繁殖，將導致西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)和(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)“兩(liang)(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)蟲遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)期提前，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)量(liang)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)大；全國大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)溫(wen)度偏(pian)(pian)(pian)高，降(jiang)(jiang)水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)，對螟(ming)蟲的(de)發生繁殖為害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)十(shi)分(fen)有利(li)，但(dan)降(jiang)(jiang)水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)少(shao)(shao)不(bu)利(li)于水稻(dao)病(bing)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)的(de)流行為害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)。
